Liga Portugal
Porto - Alverca
05/02/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.5
0.7
1:0
14%2:0
14%1:1
11%0:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Porto
Alverca
The Lab
- 1Porto: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Alverca with Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui: 6.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Porto with Rodrigo Mora: 6.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Porto: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 5Alverca: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
64%
Draw
25%
Away Win
11%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
89%
Away or Draw
36%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
41%
No
59%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of 64% for a Porto home win
- Table Position and Home Strength: Porto is the league leader and boasts an impressive home offense averaging 2.07 goals per game
- Offensive-Defensive Matchup: Porto's strong home offense faces Alverca's vulnerable away defense, which concedes an average of 1.8 goals per away game
Overview
Porto (1st place, 82 points) host Alverca (9th place, 38 points) at the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo. The Liga Portugal match takes place on May 2, 2026, at 8:30 PM. League leaders Porto aim to consolidate their top position, while Alverca seeks to establish itself in the upper half of the table.
Form
Porto shows good form with a record of DWLWW in their last five matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Their last two league results were victories. Alverca, on the other hand, has a LWWLW form (3 wins, 2 losses) in their last five games. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Porto averages 2.03 goals scored per game and concedes only 0.48 goals per game this season. At home, the offense improves to 2.07 goals scored per home game, while the defense allows only 0.4 goals. Alverca averages 1.1 goals scored and concedes 1.58 goals. Away, Alverca averages 1.13 goals scored and concedes 1.8 goals per away game. At the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo, an average of 2.6 goals were scored in the last five matches. Both teams scored in 40% of the games, and 40% ended with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
There has only been one head-to-head match between Porto and Alverca. Porto won the last encounter on December 22, 2025, away with a 3:0 score against Alverca. Overall, Porto has 1 win and 0 losses against Alverca.
Key Players
For Porto, Victor Froholdt (6 goals, 7 assists, AvgR 7.02), Gabri Veiga (3 goals, 7 assists, AvgR 7.02), and Deniz GĂŒl (4 goals, 1 assist, AvgR 6.66) are key players. Gabri Veiga shows a rising form trend with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games. Deniz GĂŒl also has a rising trend with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games. For Alverca, Figueiredo (5 goals, 2 assists, AvgR 6.98), Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira (2 goals, 4 assists, AvgR 6.99), and Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos (2 goals, 5 assists, AvgR 7.05) stand out. Figueiredo is in rising form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games.
Goalkeepers
In goal for Porto is Diogo Costa, who kept 19 clean sheets this season. For Alverca, Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira is in goal. The team managed 6 clean sheets this season, one of which was away.
Influences
Porto has a significant home advantage at the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo, as shown by 2.07 home goals scored and only 0.4 home goals conceded per game. The grass pitch at EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo influences the game. Venue statistics show an average of 2.6 goals per game, and both teams scored in 40% of the matches.