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Liga Portugal

Rio Ave - Gil Vicente

05/03/2026, 07:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Rio Ave
1.1
Total xG
2.9
Gil Vicente
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

1:3

6%

2:1

6%
What influences the xG?
RAGV

Rio Ave

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.08
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap)
-0.07
Andreas Ntoi not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Jakub Brabec on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Ole Pohlmann on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 77% available)

Gil Vicente

Attack strength (1.52x league average)
+0.84
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.06
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap)
+0.05
Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela on the bench (6 goals, 2 assists)
Agustín Nahuel Moreira Morales on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Antonio Espigares Morillas on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Rio Ave: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Gil Vicente: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Rio Ave: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Gil Vicente with José Carlos Teixeira Lopes dos Reis Gonçalves: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Rio Ave: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

21%

Draw

26%

Away Win

53%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

47%

Away or Draw

79%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical Analysis: The model predicts an away win for Gil Vicente with a 53% probability
  • League Standings: Gil Vicente is in 6th place with 49 points, significantly ahead of Rio Ave (12th place, 34 points)
  • Defensive Strength: Gil Vicente concedes an average of 1.03 goals per game this season, while Rio Ave concedes 1.68 goals
Risk Factors
  • Head-to-Head: Four of the last five direct encounters ended in a draw, with Rio Ave recording the only win
  • Gil Vicente's Form Dip: Goal production has slowed recently (1.4) compared to their season average (1.6)
  • Rio Ave's Offensive Form: The home team is currently scoring more frequently (1.4) than their season average (1.1)
Overview

Rio Ave (12th place, 34 points) host Gil Vicente (6th place, 49 points) at the Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube. The Liga Portugal match is scheduled for May 3, 2026, at 8:30 PM. Gil Vicente is contending for a European spot, while Rio Ave is in the mid-table.

Form

Rio Ave's form across all competitions is WLWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss), with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches. Their most recent result was a loss.

Gil Vicente's form is LWDLW, also showing 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last game resulted in a win.

Statistics

Rio Ave averages 1.06 goals scored per game and concedes 1.68 goals. Both teams scored in 16 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 19 matches.

Gil Vicente shows a stronger offense with an average of 1.47 goals per game and a better defense, conceding 1.03 goals. Both teams scored in 14 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 15 matches.

The Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube averages 2.6 total goals per game. In 4 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were recorded.

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave has 1 win, Gil Vicente has 0 wins, and there have been 4 draws. Rio Ave scored 8 goals in these encounters, while Gil Vicente scored 5 goals.

The last meeting on December 20, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw. Rio Ave has been the more dominant side in recent direct duels.

Key Players

For Rio Ave, Jalen Blesa is a key player with 6 goals this season and an average rating of 7.13. He scored 2 goals in his last 5 matches.

Dario Spikic has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists this season. Marios Vrousai showed a rising form in the last 5 games with 1 assist and a rating of 7.28.

For Gil Vicente, Murilo de Souza Costa stands out, with 9 goals and 4 assists this season, scoring 3 goals in his last 5 appearances.

Luís André Leite Esteves is a key midfielder with 3 goals and 8 assists this season. Santiago García González has scored 6 goals and provided 3 assists.

Goalkeepers

Rio Ave's goalkeeper Cezary Miszta has made 19 appearances this season.

The Rio Ave team achieved 5 clean sheets this season. Gil Vicente recorded 11 clean sheets, with Daniel Alexis Leite Figueira appearing in goal for 6 matches.

Influences

Rio Ave averages 1.07 goals scored at home and concedes 1.67 goals. Gil Vicente averages 1.46 goals scored away and concedes 1.38 goals.

The Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 2.6 goals per game and both teams scoring in 80% of matches.

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