Liga Portugal
Sporting CP - Vitória Guimarães
05/04/2026, 07:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.6
0.9
1:1
13%2:0
11%2:1
10%3:0
6%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
Sporting CP
Vitória Guimarães
The Lab
- 1Sporting CP with Zeno Debast: 2.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Sporting CP: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 3Vitória Guimarães with Miguel Nogueira: 2.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Sporting CP: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Sporting CP: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
55%
Draw
27%
Away Win
18%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
82%
Away or Draw
45%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Sporting CP home strength: The hosts average 2.53 goals scored and concede only 0.59 goals per home game
- Vitória Guimarães defensive weakness: Vitória concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away match
- Mathematical prediction: The model forecasts a home win with 55% probability
Risk Factors
- Declining goal production for Sporting CP with currently 1.3 goals compared to the season average of 2.4 goals
- Vitória Guimarães shows a positive form trend with currently 1.8 goals compared to the season average of 1.3 goals
- Estádio José Alvalade has a tendency for matches with an average of 3.8 goals per game
Overview
Sporting CP (3rd place, 73 points) host Vitória Guimarães (7th place, 42 points) at Estádio José Alvalade. The Liga Portugal match takes place on May 4, 2026, 9:15 PM. Sporting is fighting for top positions, while Vitória aims for a European competition spot.
Form
Sporting CP's current form is W-D-L-D-D (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss), with two consecutive draws in their last matches against Tondela (2:2) and AVS (1:1). Goal production is declining according to analysis.
Vitória Guimarães, on the other hand, shows a form of L-W-D-W-W (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Vitória recently won against Rio Ave (2:0) and Gil Vicente (1:0). The team has a positive form trend with currently higher goal production, according to analysis.
Statistics
Sporting CP has a season average of 2.48 goals scored and 0.71 goals conceded. At home, these figures are even stronger, with 2.53 goals scored and only 0.59 goals conceded per game. The team kept a clean sheet in 14 matches, 9 of them at home.
Vitória Guimarães scores an average of 1.23 goals and concedes 1.39 goals per game. Away from home, goals conceded are significantly higher at an average of 2.5. Vitória recorded 10 clean sheets, 5 of them away.
The last 5 matches at Estádio José Alvalade showed an average of 3.8 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting CP recorded 3 wins, Vitória Guimarães 1 win, and 1 match ended in a draw. Sporting scored 15 goals, while Vitória scored 8 goals. The last encounter on December 23, 2025, was won by Vitória Guimarães at home with a 4:1 score.
Key Players
For Sporting CP, Luis Suárez with 25 goals and 4 assists, Pedro Gonçalves with 13 goals and 6 assists, and Francisco Trincão with 6 goals and 11 assists are crucial. All three players currently show a declining form trend in their last five appearances.
Vitória Guimarães' standout players are Samu with 7 goals and 3 assists, Gustavo Silva with 5 goals and 2 assists, and João Mendes with 1 goal and 1 assist. Samu and Gustavo Silva show a rising form trend, as does João Mendes.
Goalkeepers
Sporting CP's goalkeeper, Rui Silva, played 29 matches and recorded 14 clean sheets.
For Vitória Guimarães, Charles was in goal for 16 matches and kept 10 clean sheets.
Influences
Estádio José Alvalade shows a tendency for high-scoring games with an average of 3.8 goals per match. In 60% of the last 5 games at the stadium, both teams scored, and in 80% there were more than 2.5 goals.
Sporting CP demonstrates a strong offense at home with an average of 2.53 goals scored per game and a solid defense with only 0.59 goals conceded. Vitória Guimarães, however, concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game.