Liga Portugal
Nacional - AVS
05/02/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
1.9
0.8
0:0
16%1:0
15%1:1
15%2:0
10%0:1
9%What influences the xG?
Nacional
AVS
The Lab
- 1Nacional with Gabriel Veron: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2AVS with Pedro Lima Barros: 0.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Nacional: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
34%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
59%
Under 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
30%
Under 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
13%
Under 3.5
87%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
66%
Both Score
Yes
38%
No
62%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Nacional with a 44% probability
- AVS concedes an average of 2.79 goals per away game, indicating significant away weakness
- Nacional is in positive form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, including 2 consecutive home wins
Risk Factors
- AVS showed resilience in their last 5 games with 4 draws, including 3 consecutively
- Nacional's recent goal production is stagnating (1.0 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.1 goals)
- G. Mendonça is missing for AVS due to a yellow card suspension
Overview
Nacional (14th place, 31 points) host AVS (18th place, 14 points) at Estádio da Madeira. The Liga Portugal match takes place on May 2, 2026, 4:30 PM. Nacional aims to move away from the relegation zone, while AVS is at the bottom of the table fighting for survival.
Form
Nacional's form in their last five matches is LWLWW (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses). The team has recorded two consecutive wins. AVS, on the other hand, shows a form of DLDDD (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss) in their last five games, including three consecutive draws. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Nacional averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they scored 1.11 goals and conceded 1.17 goals per home game. AVS has a weaker record with an average of 0.71 goals scored and 2.1 goals conceded. Away from home, AVS concedes an average of 2.79 goals per game. Both teams scored in 15 of Nacional's games and 13 of AVS's games. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 13 of Nacional's games and 18 of AVS's games.
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches, Nacional has 1 win, AVS has none, and there have been 2 draws. Nacional scored 6 goals and AVS 4 goals in these encounters. The last meeting on December 21, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw.
Key Players
For Nacional, Jesús Ramírez is the top scorer with 16 season goals and an average rating of 7.2. José Gomes contributes with 5 assists and a rating of 6.81 to defense and buildup play. Paulinho Bóia scored 4 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.94. For AVS, Pedro Lima Barros stands out with 3 goals and 2 assists and a rating of 6.77. Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete scored 3 times, Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola was involved in 1 goal and 2 assists. Not nominated: Liziero (0 goals, 4 assists) for Nacional, Tomané (4 goals, 1 assist) for AVS.
Goalkeepers
Kaique, Nacional's goalkeeper, made 25 season appearances and contributed to the team's 7 clean sheets. His average rating in the last 5 games rose to 7.51. On the opposing side, Adriel was in goal for AVS 14 times and helped his team to 4 clean sheets. His rating in the last 5 games remained stable at 7.08.
Influences
Estádio da Madeira has seen an average of 1.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches. In this stadium, both teams scored in 1 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 out of 5 games. Nacional shows relative stability at home in Liga Portugal with an average of 1.11 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per game. AVS has scored an average of 0.71 goals away and conceded 2.79 goals, indicating significant away weakness.