Liga Portugal
Casa Pia - Tondela
05/03/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.1
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
13%1:0
12%0:1
10%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
Casa Pia
Tondela
The Lab
- 1Casa Pia with David Sousa: 0.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Tondela with Rony Lopes: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Casa Pia: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4Casa Pia: 68% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
33%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
36%
Under 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The analysis suggests a home win for Casa Pia with 39% probability or a draw with 33%
- Poor Form: Both teams are in very poor form with no wins in their last five league games
- Offensive Weakness: Both teams show low average goal production (Casa Pia 0.93; Tondela 0.74 goals per game)
Risk Factors
- Tondela concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away game
- Casa Pia averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 matches
- Tondela averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
Overview
Casa Pia (16th place, 26 points) host Tondela (17th place, 22 points) at Estádio Pina Manique. The Liga Portugal match is on May 3, 2026, 4:30 PM. Both teams are fighting at the bottom of the table against relegation.
Form
Casa Pia shows a form of DLDLL in their last five matches across all competitions, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. Tondela also has a poor form of LDLLD in their last five matches across all competitions, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Casa Pia averages 0.93 goals scored per game and 1.77 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they score 0.94 goals and concede 1.33 goals per game. Tondela averages 0.74 goals scored per game and 1.68 goals conceded per game. Away, they score 0.75 goals and concede 1.94 goals per game. The Estádio Pina Manique has seen an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 1 out of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
There has only been one direct encounter between these teams. Casa Pia won this match away against Tondela on December 21, 2025, with a score of 2-1. Overall, Casa Pia has scored 2 goals and Tondela has scored 1 goal in head-to-head matches.
Key Players
For Casa Pia, Jérémy Livolant (3 goals, 8 assists) with a declining form trend, Cassiano (5 goals) with stable form, and Gaizka Larrazabal (3 goals, 4 assists) with stable form are in the current squad. For Tondela, Maranhão (6 goals, 1 assist) with a declining form trend, Rony Lopes (2 goals, 2 assists) with stable form, and Cícero (1 goal, 1 assist) with a rising form are important players.
Goalkeepers
Patrick Sequeira is Casa Pia's goalkeeper with a season average rating of 6.65. Casa Pia recorded 6 clean sheets. Bernardo is in goal for Tondela with a season average rating of 6.93. Tondela achieved 5 clean sheets.
Influences
Casa Pia's home strength is reflected in an average of 0.94 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded in home games. Tondela's away weakness is evident with 0.75 goals scored and 1.94 goals conceded in away games. The Estádio Pina Manique averages 2.0 goals per game over the last five matches.