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Liga Portugal

Famalicão - Benfica

05/02/2026, 05:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Famalicão
1.1
Total xG
2.2
Benfica
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

10%

0:1

10%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
FAMBEN

Famalicão

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.53
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.00
Ibrahima Ba on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Benfica

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.36
Attack strength (1.69x league average)
-0.26
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (2.4 vs 2 season average)
+0.13
Vangelis Pavlidis on the bench (22 goals, 4 assists)
Rafa Silva on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 89% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Famalicão: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Benfica: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Famalicão: 80% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Benfica: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Benfica with Alexander Bah: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

32%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Benfica's strong away record with an average of 2.15 goals per away game
  • Famalicão's impressive home defense, conceding an average of only 0.53 goals
  • Benfica's positive form, securing 4 wins in their last five matches
Risk Factors
  • Benfica is weakened by the absence of Vangelis Pavlidis and Rafa Silva, leaving only 90% of the team's usual goal threat available
  • Famalicão's current xG (0.78) is significantly below their season average (1.25), indicating potential overperformance
Overview

Famalicão (5th place, 51 points) host Benfica (2nd place, 75 points) at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho. The Liga Portugal match takes place on May 02, 2026, 7:00 PM. Famalicão is aiming for a European spot, while Benfica is fighting for the championship.

Form

Famalicão is unbeaten in their last five league matches, showing a form of WDDDW

This includes 2 wins and 3 draws

Benfica also displayed strong form in their last five league matches, with a record of WDWWW

They secured 4 wins and 1 draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Famalicão scored an average of 1.26 goals per game this season and conceded 0.87 goals

At home, they scored 1.26 goals and conceded only 0.53 goals per home game

Benfica is more offensively potent with an average of 2.16 goals per game and 0.65 goals conceded

Away from home, Benfica scores 2.15 goals and concedes 0.69 goals

The venue has seen an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last five matches

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and 1 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, Famalicão secured 2 wins and Benfica claimed 3 wins

Famalicão scored 4 goals, while Benfica registered 8 goals

The last encounter ended in a 0:1 away victory for Benfica on December 22, 2025

Key Players

For Famalicão: Gil Dias (4 goals, 7 assists) and Sorriso (5 goals, 4 assists) are important attacking players

Justin de Haas contributed 5 goals as a defender

For Benfica: Andreas Schjelderup (6 goals, 4 assists) and Leandro Barreiro (3 goals, 5 assists) are crucial

Richard Ríos also contributed with 3 goals and 4 assists

Not nominated for Benfica are Vangelis Pavlidis (22 goals, 4 assists) and Rafa Silva (3 goals, 0 assists)

Not nominated for Famalicão is Ibrahima Ba (1 goal, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Lazar Carević (Famalicão) played 31 matches and kept 15 clean sheets

Anatoliy Trubin (Benfica) played 29 matches and achieved 14 clean sheets

Influences

Famalicão holds a home advantage with a solid home record of 1.26 goals scored and 0.53 goals conceded per game

The grass pitch of Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho favors a game with an average of 2.0 goals per match

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