Liga Portugal
Sporting Braga - Estoril
05/03/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.5
0.9
1:1
13%2:0
11%2:1
10%3:0
6%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
Sporting Braga
Estoril
The Lab
- 1Sporting Braga: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- 2Estoril with Pedro Amaral: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Sporting Braga with Gustaf Lagerbielke: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Estoril: 71% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)
- 5Estoril: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
55%
Draw
27%
Away Win
18%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
82%
Away or Draw
45%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis indicates a high probability of a home win at 55%
- Estoril is in a clear crisis of form with 5 consecutive losses
- Sporting Braga is offensively strong at home with 1.94 goals per game, while Estoril concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- Sporting Braga had a short recovery period with only 3 days since their last match
- Estoril averaged 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 matches
- Estoril concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game
Overview
Sporting Braga (4th place, 56 points) host Estoril (10th place, 37 points) at the EstĂĄdio Municipal de Braga. Liga Portugal match on May 3, 2026, 6:00 PM. Braga is fighting for international spots, while Estoril is in the mid-table.
Form
Sporting Braga shows a current form of WDWLW across all competitions, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. The last result was a 2-1 victory against SC Freiburg. Estoril, on the other hand, is in a clear crisis of form with LLLLL, meaning 5 consecutive losses. Estoril lost their last match 0-1 against FamalicĂŁo.
Statistics
Sporting Braga has scored an average of 1.9 goals per game this season and conceded 1.0 goals. At home, they average 1.94 goals and concede 0.94 goals per home game. They kept 12 clean sheets. Estoril has scored an average of 1.65 goals per game and conceded 1.68 goals. Away from home, they conceded an average of 2.07 goals per away game. At the EstĂĄdio Municipal de Braga, an average of 2.6 goals per game were scored, with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 matches (BTTS rate 80%) and over 2.5 goals scored in 3 out of 5 matches (Over 2.5 rate 60%).
Head-to-Head
In the 5 head-to-head matches between the two teams, Sporting Braga secured 3 wins, while Estoril won 1 time, and there was 1 draw. The goal difference is 8:4 in favor of Sporting Braga. The last encounter was won by Estoril away on December 19, 2025, with a score of 1-0. Sporting Braga has been more dominant in recent matchups.
Key Players
For Sporting Braga, Rodrigo Zalazar with 16 goals and 4 assists (season average 7.43), Pau VĂctor with 8 goals and 4 assists (season average 6.98), and Mario Dorgeles with 1 goal and a rising form (+0.43 FormTrendDelta) are important attacking forces. Key players like Ricardo Horta (14 goals, 4 assists) and VĂctor GĂłmez (1 goal, 3 assists) are not nominated. For Estoril, Yanis Begraoui stands out with 19 goals and 1 assist (season average 7.06), JoĂŁo Carvalho with 6 goals and 12 assists (season average 7.18), and Jordan Holsgrove with 1 goal and 7 assists (season average 7.17).
Goalkeepers
Sporting Braga's goalkeeper, Lukas Hornicek, has played in 30 season matches. His counterpart from Estoril, Martin Turk, has made 2 season appearances. Sporting Braga kept 12 clean sheets this season, while Estoril achieved 5 clean sheets.
Influences
Sporting Braga holds a clear home advantage, scoring an average of 1.94 home goals and conceding only 0.94 goals. Estoril concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game. The grass surface at EstĂĄdio Municipal de Braga provides stable conditions. The last 5 matches at this stadium have seen an average of 2.6 goals per game, with a high probability of both teams scoring.