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Liga Portugal

Moreirense - Estrela Amadora

05/02/2026, 02:30 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Moreirense
0.9
Total xG
1.8
Estrela Amadora
0.9
Most Likely Scores

0:0

18%

1:1

15%

0:1

13%

1:0

13%

0:2

7%
What influences the xG?
MOREA

Moreirense

Attack weakness (0.44x league average)
-0.86
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.16
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 15, 7 places gap)
+0.03
Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Estrela Amadora

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.33
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.08
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 8, 7 places gap)
-0.07
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estrela Amadora with Otavio Manoel Galdino Fernandes: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Estrela Amadora: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 3
    Estrela Amadora: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

36%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

55%

Under 1.5

45%

Over 2.5

27%

Under 2.5

73%

Over 3.5

11%

Under 3.5

89%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

64%

Both Score

Yes

37%

No

63%

Key Factors
  • The prediction models forecast a very balanced match with identical expected goals of 0.90 for both teams
  • Both teams show a negative form trend; Moreirense with LLDWL and Estrela Amadora with WLLLL in their last 5 games
  • Estrela Amadora's significant defensive weakness away from home, conceding an average of 2.25 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Moreirense recorded an average of only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • V. Cardoso Sousa (broken fibula) is out injured for Moreirense
Overview

Moreirense (8th place, 39 points) host Estrela Amadora (15th place, 28 points) at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Liga Portugal match on May 2, 2026, 4:30 PM

Moreirense aims to stabilize in midfield, while Estrela Amadora needs crucial points in the relegation battle

Form

Moreirense shows a form of LLDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last 5 league games

This corresponds to 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

The last result was a loss, Moreirense lost 1-4 away against Benfica

Previously there was a 1-0 home win against Estoril and a 1-1 away draw against FamalicĆ£o

Estrela Amadora's form in their last 5 league games is WLLLL

This means 1 win and 4 losses, with 4 consecutive losses at the end

The last match was a 1-2 home loss against Porto, followed by a 0-1 away loss against Arouca and a 0-1 home loss against Sporting CP

Statistics

Moreirense averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded per season

At home, they average 1.06 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded

Moreirense kept 8 clean sheets and both teams scored in 15 matches

Estrela Amadora also averages 1.1 goals per game, but concedes an average of 1.65 goals

Away from home, they score 1.08 goals and concede a high 2.25 goals per game

Estrela Amadora recorded 7 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 14 matches

In the last 5 games at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, an average of 1.6 goals per game were scored

Both teams scored in 1 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

There have been a total of 5 head-to-head matches between Moreirense and Estrela Amadora

The record is balanced with 1 win for Moreirense, 1 win for Estrela Amadora, and 3 draws

The goal difference is also balanced at 5:5 goals

The last encounter on December 20, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw

The head-to-head record is rated as even

Key Players

For Moreirense, Alan de Souza GuimarĆ£es is an important midfielder with 4 goals and 5 assists this season, he scored 1 goal in his last 5 games

Travassos, a defender, has scored 5 season goals and provided 3 assists, his form shows a slight declining trend

Rodrigo Alonso MartĆ­n (midfielder) contributed 3 goals and 2 assists this season, with 1 goal in his last 5 appearances

For Estrela Amadora, Abraham Marcus is a key attacker with 5 season goals and 5 assists, his form is rising with 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 games

Jovane Cabral has scored 6 goals this season and contributed 1 goal in the last 5 games

Rodrigo Pinho, also an attacker, has 4 season goals and 1 assist, his form shows a rising trend with 2 goals in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Moreirense's goalkeeper Caio Gobbo Secco has achieved 8 clean sheets this season

Estrela Amadora's goalkeeper Renan Ribeiro has kept 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

Moreirense has scored an average of 1.06 goals at home and conceded 1.19 goals, indicating a moderate home advantage

The last 5 games at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas showed an average of 1.6 goals per game

Statistics indicate that both teams scored in 1 of 5 games and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 games

The match will be played on a grass surface

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