Liga Portugal
Arouca - Santa Clara
05/02/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.4
1.1
1:1
14%0:0
10%1:0
10%2:1
9%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
Arouca
Santa Clara
The Lab
- 1Arouca with Alfonso Trezza: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 3.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Arouca: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 3Arouca: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4Santa Clara: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Santa Clara with Gustavo Klismahn: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
30%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Arouca with a 42% probability
- Arouca's home offensive strength (avg. 1.29 goals) meets Santa Clara's away defense (avg. 1.50 goals conceded)
- Matches at Estádio Municipal de Arouca tend to be high-scoring, with an average of 3.4 goals per game and 80% over 2.5 goals
Risk Factors
- Arouca averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Santa Clara averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Santa Clara recently conceded an average of 1.75 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.23
Overview
Arouca (11th place, 35 points) host Santa Clara (13th place, 32 points) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca. The Liga Portugal match takes place on May 2, 2026, 4:30 PM. Both teams are battling in the mid-table for a better position.
Form
Arouca's current form in Liga Portugal is WWLWL, which means 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches. Their last result was a 1-2 away loss against Alverca. Santa Clara shows a form of WLLDW, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Santa Clara won their last match 2-1 at home against Sporting Braga.
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Arouca has scored an average of 1.26 goals and conceded 1.94 goals per game this season. At home, they scored 1.29 goals and conceded 1.59 goals per home game. Santa Clara scored an average of 0.90 goals and conceded 1.23 goals. Away from home, Santa Clara averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded.
Matches at Estádio Municipal de Arouca have seen an average of 3.4 total goals per game. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In 3 direct Liga Portugal encounters, Arouca secured 1 win, Santa Clara also 1 win, and there was 1 draw. The goal difference is 1:2 in favor of Santa Clara. The last meeting on December 21, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw. The recent head-to-head record is even.
Key Players
For Arouca, Alfonso Trezza with 8 goals and 3 assists, Iván Barbero with 7 goals and 2 assists, and Naïs Djouahra with 6 goals and 3 assists are key players. Alfonso Trezza shows stable form, while Iván Barbero's form is declining. Not nominated: Pablo Gozálbez (1G/1A).
For Santa Clara, Gabriel Silva with 5 goals, Serginho with 4 goals and 2 assists, and Gonçalo Paciência with 3 goals are the top scorers. Serginho and Gonçalo Paciência show stable form, while Gabriel Silva's form is declining. Not nominated: Luis Fernando (1G/1A), Welinton Torrão (1G/1A).
Goalkeepers
Arouca's goalkeeper, Ignacio de Arruabarrena, has an average rating of 6.81 in 13 appearances. The Arouca team achieved 7 clean sheets this season. Gabriel Batista, Santa Clara's goalkeeper, has an average rating of 6.79 in 31 appearances. Santa Clara kept 9 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Arouca averaged 1.29 home goals scored and 1.59 home goals conceded. Santa Clara averaged 0.93 goals scored away and 1.50 goals conceded away. Estádio Municipal de Arouca is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.4 total goals per match. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 80% of matches, and both teams scored in 60%.