Bundesliga
Hamburger SV - FC Köln
03/14/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.9
1.2
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
8%1:2
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Hamburger SV
FC Köln
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
49%
Draw
27%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
51%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Hamburger SV with 49% probability
- Hamburger SV shows stable form, while FC Köln exhibits a negative trend
- HSV's home defense (Avg. 0.94 goals conceded) is significantly stronger than FC Köln's away defense (Avg. 2.44 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
- Both teams have extensive lists of injured and suspended players
- FC Köln conceded an average of 2.44 goals per away game
- FC Köln has been dominant in recent head-to-head matches with 3 wins in 5 games
Overview
Hamburger SV (10th place, 29 points) host FC Köln (14th place, 24 points) at the Volksparkstadion
Bundesliga match on March 14, 2026, 6:30 PM
HSV aims to improve its league position, while Köln needs crucial points in the relegation battle
Form
Hamburger SV shows mixed form in their last five games (W-D-L-L-W)
This includes 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
FC Köln is going through a negative phase with 4 losses and 1 draw (L-L-D-L-L)
The team from Cologne has not won any of their last five matches
According to the analysis, Hamburger SV's current form is assessed as stable, while FC Köln shows a negative trend
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Hamburger SV scores an average of 1.12 goals per game and concedes 1.44 goals
In home games, HSV scores an average of 1.12 goals and concedes 0.94 goals
FC Köln scores an average of 1.36 goals and concedes 1.72 goals per game
In away games, Köln concedes an average of 2.44 goals
Both teams scored in 14 HSV games and 18 FC Köln games
Over 2.5 goals occurred in 13 HSV games and 15 Köln games
At Volksparkstadion, an average of 2.6 goals per game were scored in the last five matches
In 3 out of 5 games at Volksparkstadion, both teams scored, and 3 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV's goal production is consistent at about 1.4 goals per game
FC Köln's goal production is stagnant at 1.0 goals, while the season average is 1.4
Head-to-Head
In the last five direct Bundesliga encounters, FC Köln won 3 matches
Hamburger SV won 2 of these games, with no draws
The goal difference is 11:6 in favor of FC Köln
The last meeting on November 2, 2025, ended with a 4:1 victory for FC Köln
FC Köln has been dominant in recent head-to-head matches
Key Players
Hamburger SV's probable starting XI will feature Ransford Königsdörffer in attack, who scored 4 goals and provided 2 assists in 25 season appearances
Luka Vuskovic in defense contributed 5 goals in 22 appearances
Fábio Vieira in midfield has 4 goals and 4 assists in 20 season appearances
For FC Köln, Said El Mala (8 goals, 4 assists in 25 appearances) and Jakub Kamiński (6 goals, 2 assists in 25 appearances) are important offensive players
Ragnar Ache scored 5 goals and 3 assists in 24 season appearances for Köln
Goalkeepers
In goal for Hamburger SV is Daniel Heuer Fernandes, who kept 6 clean sheets this season
Marvin Schwäbe guards the goal for FC Köln, achieving 3 clean sheets this season
Influences
The match takes place at Volksparkstadion, whose grass surface is considered normal
Hamburger SV scores an average of 1.12 goals at home and concedes 0.94 goals
FC Köln concedes an average of 2.44 goals per away game
Volksparkstadion recorded an average of 2.6 goals in the last five matches