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Liga Portugal

Gil Vicente - Arouca

05/11/2026, 07:15 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Gil Vicente
1.1
Total xG
2.0
Arouca
0.9
Most Likely Scores

0:0

15%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

10%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
GVARO

Gil Vicente

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.53
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.40
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.06
Antonio Espigares Morillas on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Arouca

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.49
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.02
Hyun-ju Lee not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Arouca with Javi Sánchez: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Gil Vicente: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Gil Vicente with Zé Carlos: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 4.1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Arouca: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Arouca: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

34%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Arouca's away vulnerability: The team concedes an average of 2.54 goals per away game
  • Gil Vicente's home strength: The team concedes an average of only 0.74 goals in home matches
  • Gil Vicente's current form: Gil Vicente scores more frequently (1.8 goals) recently than their season average (1.6 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Arouca's attacking efficiency: Arouca averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Historical draw tendency: 4 of the last 5 head-to-head encounters ended in a draw
  • Low goal probability: The pipeline analysis predicts only a 32% chance for over 2.5 goals and 41% for "both teams to score"
Overview

Gil Vicente (6th place, 50 points) host Arouca (11th place, 36 points) at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos. Liga Portugal match on May 11, 2026, 8:15 PM. Gil Vicente aim to consolidate their top-half position, while Arouca seek to improve their standing

Form

Gil Vicente's form over the last five matches is WDLWD

This includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their last result was a draw

Arouca shows a form of WLWLD

This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Arouca also ended their last match with a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Gil Vicente scores an average of 1.44 goals per game and concedes 1.00 goal

They recorded 12 clean sheets and both teams scored in 15 matches

16 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Arouca scores an average of 1.28 goals and concedes 1.94 goals per game

They kept 7 clean sheets and both teams scored in 17 matches

21 of their games had over 2.5 goals

In home games, Gil Vicente scores an average of 1.42 goals and concedes 0.74 goals

Arouca concedes an average of 2.54 goals per away game

At Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, the last 5 games averaged 2.8 goals

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and 4 of 5 ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, there have been 4 draws

Arouca secured 1 win, while Gil Vicente has none

The goal difference in direct encounters is 6:9 in favor of Arouca

Their last meeting on December 28, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw

Arouca is rated as the recently dominant team in head-to-head matches

Key Players

For Gil Vicente, Murilo de Souza Costa stands out with 11 season goals and 4 assists

Luís André Leite Esteves has scored 3 goals and provided 8 assists

Santiago García González contributed with 6 goals and 3 assists

Additionally, Antonio Espigares Morillas (1G/1A) is not nominated

For Arouca, Alfonso Trezza is a key player with 8 season goals and 3 assists

Naïs Djouahra has delivered 6 goals and 3 assists

Iván Barbero has 7 goals and 2 assists

Additionally, Hyun-ju Lee (6G/3A) is not nominated

Goalkeepers

Gil Vicente has recorded 12 clean sheets this season

Arouca achieved 7 clean sheets

Daniel Alexis Leite Figueira is the goalkeeper for Gil Vicente

Ignacio de Arruabarrena is the goalkeeper for Arouca

Influences

Gil Vicente shows solid performance at home with an average of 1.42 goals scored

They conceded an average of only 0.74 goals in home games

Arouca, however, is vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.54 goals per game

The grass pitch at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos offers standard playing conditions

Estádio Cidade de Barcelos has seen an average of 2.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and 4 of 5 ended with over 2.5 goals

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