🇵🇹

Liga Portugal

Vitória Guimarães - Casa Pia

05/11/2026, 07:15 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Vitória Guimarães
1.6
Total xG
2.4
Casa Pia
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
VGCP

Vitória Guimarães

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)
+0.21
Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.21
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 16, 9 places gap)
+0.07
Oumar Camara on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
João Mendes on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Diogo Sousa not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Casa Pia

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.81
Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.51
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average)
-0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 7, 9 places gap)
-0.07
Jérémy Livolant not in squad (3 goals, 8 assists)
Cassiano not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists)
Rafael Brito not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
62% of goal output missing (only 34% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Casa Pia with Pedro Rosas: 0.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Vitória Guimarães: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Vitória Guimarães with Óscar Rivas: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Casa Pia: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Vitória Guimarães: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

27%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Clear Favorite: Mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Vitória Guimarães with 57% probability
  • Critical Absences for Casa Pia: Only 34% of usual starting eleven goal threat available, as J. Livolant (3G/8A), Cassiano (6G/0A), and Rafael Brito (2G/1A) are not in the lineup
  • Form Trends: Vitória Guimarães in positive form (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), while Casa Pia remained winless in their last five matches (1 draw, 4 losses)
Risk Factors
  • Casa Pia is defensively vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.38 goals per away game
  • Historically even head-to-head record: 3 draws in 5 direct encounters pose a risk for the favorite
  • Casa Pia averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 matches
Overview

Vitória Guimarães (7th place, 42 points) host Casa Pia (16th place, 26 points) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. The Liga Portugal match takes place on May 11, 2026, 8:15 PM. Vitória Guimarães aims for a mid-table finish, while Casa Pia seeks to distance themselves from the relegation zone.

Form

Vitória Guimarães' form across all competitions is WDWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). In their last five matches, they recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Casa Pia, on the other hand, shows a form of LDLLL, failing to secure a win in their last five matches, with 1 draw and 4 losses. Vitória Guimarães recently won 2-0 against Rio Ave and 1-0 against Gil Vicente, while Casa Pia lost 0-1 to Tondela and 1-2 to Gil Vicente.

Statistics

Vitória Guimarães has scored an average of 1.22 goals per game this season and conceded 1.5 goals. At home, they are defensively stronger, conceding an average of 0.86 goals. Casa Pia shows weaker offensive performance with 0.91 goals per game and a vulnerable defense, conceding 1.75 goals on average. Away from home, Casa Pia concedes an average of 2.38 goals. Games involving Vitória Guimarães at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques have seen an average of 3.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches.

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, the record between Vitória Guimarães and Casa Pia is even. Both teams have won 1 match each, with 3 games ending in a draw. The goal difference is 2:3 in favor of Casa Pia. The last encounter on December 28, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw.

Key Players

For Vitória Guimarães, Samu, with 7 season goals and 3 assists, and Gustavo Silva, with 5 goals and 2 assists, are important offensive players. Samu has 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, Gustavo Silva has 3 goals and 1 assist, both showing rising form. Gonçalo Nogueira contributed 4 assists this season, including 2 in the last 5 games. For Casa Pia, Gaizka Larrazabal, with 3 goals and 4 assists, and David Sousa, with 2 goals, are defensively important. João Marques scored 1 season goal and 1 goal in the last 5 games.

Goalkeepers

Charles is the goalkeeper for Vitória Guimarães, having made 17 appearances this season. He shows a rising form with an average rating of 6.99 in the last five games. Charles contributed to 10 clean sheets this season. Patrick Sequeira is Casa Pia's goalkeeper with 27 appearances. His form is stable with an average rating of 6.68 in the last five games. Patrick Sequeira contributed to 6 clean sheets.

Influences

Vitória Guimarães benefits from home advantage, as they score an average of 1.24 goals at home and concede only 0.86 goals. The Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches.

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.