🇵🇹

Liga Portugal

Benfica - Sporting Braga

05/11/2026, 07:15 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Benfica
1.8
Total xG
2.7
Sporting Braga
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
BENSB

Benfica

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.64
Attack strength (1.54x league average)
+0.41
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.07
Vangelis Pavlidis on the bench (22 goals, 4 assists)
Richard Ríos not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists)
Nicolás Otamendi not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 86% available)

Sporting Braga

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (1.2 vs 2 season average)
-0.23
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.21
Rodrigo Zalazar on the bench (16 goals, 5 assists)
Mario Dorgeles on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
38% of goal output missing (only 78% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Benfica: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Sporting Braga: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Sporting Braga with Víctor Gómez: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Benfica: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Benfica: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

25%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

41%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win with 59%
  • Offensive strength: Benfica currently scores more often (2.2 goals on average) than their season average (2.0 goals)
  • Home strength: Benfica boasts an impressive home offense (2.17 goals/game) and defense (0.61 goals conceded/game)
Overview

Benfica (3rd place, 76 points) host Sporting Braga (4th place, 57 points) at the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Liga Portugal match on May 11, 2026, 9:15 PM

Benfica aims to continue their unbeaten run and maintain the fight for the top of Liga Portugal

Form

Benfica shows strong form with "DWWWD" (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last 5 games

The home team achieved 3 wins and 2 draws, with the last game ending in a draw

Sporting Braga has a mixed form of "WLWDL" (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last 5 matches

The away team recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with the last game being a loss

Statistics

Benfica shows a strong offense this season with an average of 2.16 goals per game

The defense is also stable with an average of 0.69 goals conceded per game

Sporting Braga scores an average of 1.88 goals and concedes 1.00 goal per game

In home games, Benfica scores an average of 2.17 goals and concedes an average of 0.61 goals

Sporting Braga scores an average of 1.87 goals away and concedes an average of 1.07 goals

At the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, an average of 3.4 total goals were scored in the last 5 games

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In 5 recent head-to-head matches, Benfica secured 2 wins, Sporting Braga 1 win, and there were 2 draws

Benfica scored a total of 8 goals in these encounters, while Sporting Braga scored 6 goals

The last encounter on December 28, 2025, ended in a 2:2 draw

Benfica has been the more dominant team in recent direct duels

Key Players

For Benfica, Andreas Schjelderup (7 goals, 5 assists, Avg. 7.02 Rating) and Leandro Barreiro (3 goals, 5 assists, Avg. 6.91 Rating) are key players

Andreas Schjelderup shows rising form with 3 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Leandro Barreiro contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games and shows rising form

Franjo Ivanović has scored 6 goals and 1 assist this season, with 2 goals in the last 5 games

For Sporting Braga, Pau Víctor (8 goals, 4 assists, Avg. 6.98 Rating) stands out, scoring 2 goals in the last 5 games

Demir Ege Tıknaz (1 goal, 1 assist in the last 5 games) shows rising form

Víctor Gómez (1 goal, 3 assists this season) shows rising form with 2 assists in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Benfica's goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin made 30 season appearances

The Benfica team kept 14 clean sheets this season

Sporting Braga's goalkeeper Lukas Hornicek made 31 season appearances

The Sporting Braga team kept 12 clean sheets this season

Influences

Benfica benefits from home advantage at the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica with an average of 2.17 goals scored and 0.61 goals conceded in home games

The grass surface of the stadium is noted as an influencing factor for the match

The last 5 games at the stadium showed an average of 3.4 goals per game, with a 40% BTTS rate and an 80% Over 2.5 rate

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.