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Liga Portugal

AVS - Porto

05/10/2026, 05:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
AVS
0.7
Total xG
2.7
Porto
1.9
Most Likely Scores

0:2

13%

1:1

11%

1:2

10%

0:3

8%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
AVSPOR

AVS

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.84
Defensive weakness (2.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.78
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 1, 17 places gap)
-0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.2 vs 0.8 season average)
+0.11
Tomané on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)

Porto

Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+0.81
Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.61
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 18, 17 places gap)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.09
Victor Froholdt on the bench (6 goals, 7 assists)
Gabri Veiga on the bench (3 goals, 8 assists)
Oskar Pietuszewski on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Pablo Rosario on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Jan Bednarek not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Zaidu Sanusi not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 73% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Porto: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    AVS with Leonardo Rivas: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Porto with Oskar Pietuszewski: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Porto: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Pedro Lima Barros: 2 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

13%

Draw

24%

Away Win

64%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

36%

Away or Draw

87%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Clear Favorite: The mathematical analysis shows a high probability of 64% for an away win for Porto
  • Porto's Offensive Strength: Porto's goal production, with 1.91 expected away goals, significantly surpasses that of the home team
  • Defensive Weakness at AVS: AVS concedes an average of 2.06 goals per game this season
Risk Factors
  • AVS scores only 0.75 home goals per game
  • CRITICAL: Porto has only 73% of usual starting eleven goal threat available, without Victor Froholdt, Gabri Veiga, Oskar Pietuszewski, Pablo Rosario, Jan Bednarek, Zaidu Sanusi
Overview

AVS (18th place, 17 points) hosts Porto (1st place, 85 points) at EstĂĄdio Clube Desportivo das Aves. The Liga Portugal match takes place on May 10, 2026, 6:00 PM. Porto leads the league table and is a clear favorite against bottom-placed AVS.

Form

AVS shows a form of LDDDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). In their last five games, the home team recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with the last result being a win. Porto, on the other hand, is in strong form with WLWWW. The visitors recorded 4 wins and 1 loss in their last five matches and enter the game with a 3-game winning streak. AVS scored 2 goals and conceded 1 against Nacional in their last match, while Porto won 1-0 against Alverca.

Statistics

AVS has scored an average of 0.75 goals per game this season and conceded 2.06 goals per game. Porto boasts a strong offense with an average of 2.0 goals per game and a very solid defense with only 0.47 goals conceded per game. In home games, AVS scored 0.75 times and conceded 1.62 goals. Porto scored an average of 2.0 goals away from home and conceded only 0.56 goals. At EstĂĄdio Clube Desportivo das Aves, an average of 1.6 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 games.

Head-to-Head

In the 3 direct encounters between AVS and Porto, AVS has not won any, while Porto has won all 3 matches. The goal difference is 0:9 in favor of Porto. The last meeting on December 29, 2025, ended in a 2-0 victory for Porto. Porto has been dominant in recent head-to-head matches.

Key Players

For AVS, Pedro Lima Barros is an important midfielder with 4 season goals and 2 assists, whose form has recently risen (3 goals in the last 5 games). Guilherme Neiva Silva, an attacker, recorded 2 season goals and 2 assists, also showing rising form (1 goal, 1 assist in the last 5 games). Diego Ariel Duarte GĂĄrcete contributed 3 goals and 1 assist to the season. For Porto, Alberto Costa stands out as a defender with 1 season goal and 8 assists, 2 of which came in the last 5 games. Deniz GĂŒl, an attacker, scored 4 season goals and 1 assist, with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and rising form. PepĂȘ contributed 3 goals and 4 assists to the season and scored 1 goal in the last 5 games.

Goalkeepers

AVS' goalkeeper Adriel made 15 appearances and kept 4 clean sheets. Porto's goalkeeper ClĂĄudio Ramos played 1 game, while the team recorded a total of 20 clean sheets, 9 of which were away.

Influences

Porto demonstrates an impressive away performance with an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.56 goals conceded. The EstĂĄdio Clube Desportivo das Aves has seen an average of 1.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches. The home team AVS scores an average of 0.75 goals per home game and concedes 1.62 home goals.

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