Liga Portugal
Estrela Amadora - Famalicão
05/11/2026, 07:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.1
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
14%0:1
12%1:0
11%1:2
7%What influences the xG?
Estrela Amadora
Famalicão
The Lab
- 1Famalicão: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)
- 2Famalicão: 88% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 3Estrela Amadora with Otavio Manoel Galdino Fernandes: 3.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Estrela Amadora: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Estrela Amadora: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
34%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
63%
Under 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
34%
Under 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
66%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Form disparity: Famalicão unbeaten in their last five games, while Estrela Amadora suffered five consecutive losses
- League position: Famalicão in fifth place, significantly higher than Estrela Amadora in 15th
- Mathematical analysis: The model predicts a close match with a slight advantage for Famalicão (35% away win, 34% draw)
Risk Factors
- Estrela Amadora averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Estrela Amadora is in a clear negative trend with five consecutive losses
- The mathematical model predicts low goal expectations for both teams, at 1.01 and 1.07 goals respectively
Overview
Estrela Amadora (15th place, 28 points) hosts Famalicão (5th place, 52 points) at the Estádio José Gomes. Liga Portugal match on May 11, 2026, 8:15 PM. Estrela Amadora aims to move away from the relegation zone, while Famalicão is fighting for European spots.
Form
Estrela Amadora is in a difficult phase with five consecutive losses (LLLLL). The team scored only 3 goals and conceded 9 in their last five matches. Famalicão shows significantly better form and is unbeaten in their last five games (DDDWD), with one win and four draws. During this period, Famalicão scored 8 goals and conceded 7. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Estrela Amadora scores an average of 1.11 goals per home game and concedes 1.26. The team kept 4 clean sheets at home. Famalicão scores an average of 1.25 goals away and concedes 1.42. Famalicão managed to keep 6 clean sheets in away games. At Estádio José Gomes, the last five games averaged 2.8 total goals per match. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In five direct encounters between the two teams, Estrela Amadora has recorded two wins, Famalicão one, and two games ended in a draw. The goal difference is 4:5 in favor of Famalicão. The last meeting took place on December 27, 2025, where Estrela Amadora emerged victorious with a 3:2 score, winning the last direct duel.
Key Players
For Estrela Amadora, Jovane Cabral (7 goals, 0 assists, stable form), Abraham Marcus (5 goals, 5 assists, declining form), and Rodrigo Pinho (4 goals, 1 assist, declining form) are key. For Famalicão, Gil Dias (4 goals, 7 assists, stable form), Sorriso (5 goals, 4 assists, declining form), and Mathias de Amorim (4 goals, 2 assists, stable form) are important players. For Famalicão, Rodrigo Pinheiro (3 goals, 2 assists) and Ibrahima Ba (1 goal, 1 assist) are not listed in the lineup.
Goalkeepers
Renan Ribeiro of Estrela Amadora has an average season rating of 6.71 and achieved 7 clean sheets, with his current form being described as declining. Lazar Carević of Famalicão shows an average season rating of 7.01 and achieved 15 clean sheets, but his form is also described as declining.
Influences
Estrela Amadora scores an average of 1.11 goals at home and concedes 1.26, reflecting the home advantage in offense and defense. Estádio José Gomes averages 2.8 goals per game. In 40% of the last five matches at the stadium, both teams scored, and in 60% there were over 2.5 goals.