🇵🇹

Liga Portugal

Santa Clara - Nacional

05/11/2026, 07:15 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Santa Clara
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Nacional
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

14%

2:0

9%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
SCNAC

Santa Clara

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-0.35
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.17
Rising form (1.5 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
Serginho not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 72% available)

Nacional

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
Ze Vitor not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Liziero not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)
Alan Nuñez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Chiheb Labidi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 81% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nacional with Gabriel Veron: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Santa Clara: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 3
    Santa Clara with Henrique Silva: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Santa Clara: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

33%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 43% probability for Santa Clara
  • Santa Clara's offense shows a positive trend, with an average of 1.5 goals in recent matches, compared to 1.1 season average
  • Nacional is tactically strong offensively with an average of 5.2 shots on target in the last 5 matches
Overview

Santa Clara (13th place, 33 points) host Nacional (14th place, 31 points) at Estádio de São Miguel

This Liga Portugal match takes place on May 11, 2026, 8:15 PM

An important game in the fight for a better league position

Form

Santa Clara's form in the last five league games is LL DWD

This means 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses

The last result was a 2-2 draw against Arouca

Nacional's form in the last five league games is WLWWL

This means 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses

The last result was a 1-2 loss against AVS

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Santa Clara scores an average of 0.94 goals per game this season and concedes 1.25 goals

Nacional scores an average of 1.09 goals per game and concedes 1.34 goals

Santa Clara scored 0.94 goals and conceded 1.06 goals per game in home matches

Nacional scored 1.08 goals and conceded 1.54 goals per game in away matches

At Estádio de São Miguel, an average of 2.2 goals were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches (40%) at Estádio de São Miguel

There were over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 matches (40%) at Estádio de São Miguel

Head-to-Head

In the 3 head-to-head matches played so far, Santa Clara won 1, Nacional won 1, and there was 1 draw

The goal difference is slightly in favor of Nacional with 5:4 goals

The last encounter on January 11, 2026, ended in a 3-3 draw at Nacional

The historical record shows an even balance of power

Key Players

For Santa Clara, Gabriel Silva (6 goals, 0 assists), Gonçalo Paciência (3 goals, 0 assists) and Welinton Torrão (1 goal, 2 assists) are the main attacking threats

For Nacional, Jesús Ramírez (16 goals, 0 assists), Paulinho Bóia (4 goals, 2 assists) and Léo Santos (3 goals, 2 assists) stand out

Goalkeepers

Santa Clara's goalkeeper is João Afonso

Santa Clara recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Nacional's goalkeeper is Kaique, who has an average rating of 6.95 in 26 season appearances and recently achieved 7.34

Nacional recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

Santa Clara shows a balanced home performance with 0.94 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded per home game

Estádio de São Miguel is characterized by an average of 2.2 goals per game

In 40% of the last 5 matches at Estádio de São Miguel, both teams scored, and 40% of matches had over 2.5 goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.