Liga Portugal
Alverca - Estoril
05/10/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.3
0.9
1:1
15%1:0
12%0:0
12%2:0
9%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Alverca
Estoril
The Lab
- 1Estoril with AndrƩ Lacximicant: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 2Alverca with Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui: 5.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Alverca: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Alverca: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Estoril: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
31%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 44% and a 75% chance for home win or draw
- Alverca shows a positive form development with 3 wins in the last 5 games (WWLWL), while Estoril has a negative streak of 4 losses and one draw (LLLLD)
- Estoril's offense is not very forceful, averaging only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
Risk Factors
- Estoril concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities
- Estoril averaged 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games (average)
Overview
Alverca (10th place, 38 points) host Estoril (9th place, 38 points) at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Liga Portugal match on May 10, 2026, 9:30 PM
Both teams are level in the table and are looking to climb into the midfield
Form
Home side Alverca shows a form of WWLWL in Liga Portugal
This corresponds to 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses
Their last match ended in a loss
Estoril, on the other hand, has a current form of LLLLD
This corresponds to 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses
They drew their last game
Alverca is scoring more frequently recently (1.4) than their season average (1.1)
Estoril's goal production is stagnant (0.8), while their season average is 1.7
Statistics
Alverca has scored an average of 1.06 goals per game this season and conceded 1.56 goals
At home, their average is 1.06 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded
Estoril scored an average of 1.63 times and conceded 1.66 goals per game
Away, they scored 1.6 goals and conceded an average of 2.0 goals
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca sees an average of 2.8 total goals per game
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches
3 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams
Estoril won this single encounter on December 27, 2025, with a score of 4:1
Estoril scored 4 goals in this match, Alverca scored 1
The away team was recently dominant
Key Players
For Alverca: Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos (2 goals, 5 assists) shows stable form with an average rating of 7.07
Figueiredo (5 goals, 2 assists) is improving with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games
Kaiky Marques Naves (2 goals, 0 assists) contributed 1 goal in the last 5 games
Not nominated are Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira (2G/4A) and Isaac James (0G/2A)
For Estoril: Jordan Holsgrove (1 goal, 7 assists) has an average rating of 7.18
JoĆ£o Carvalho (6 goals, 12 assists) has an average rating of 7.17
Yanis Begraoui (20 goals, 1 assist) is an important scorer with 2 goals in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira for Alverca featured in 7 season games, with the team achieving 6 clean sheets
Joel Robles for Estoril played in 29 matches, and his team recorded 5 clean sheets
Influences
Alverca scores an average of 1.06 goals at home and concedes 1.38 goals
Estoril concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca has seen an average of 2.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches