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Liga Portugal

Rio Ave - Sporting CP

05/11/2026, 07:15 PM

1 : 4
Expected Goals
Rio Ave
1.1
Total xG
2.7
Sporting CP
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
RASC

Rio Ave

Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Andreas Ntoi on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Jakub Brabec on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Ole Pohlmann on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Sporting CP

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.31
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.19
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap)
+0.08
Geny Catamo on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists)
Zeno Debast on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.8 vs 2.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting CP with Zeno Debast: 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Rio Ave: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Sporting CP: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 4
    Sporting CP: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Sporting CP: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

25%

Draw

28%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

53%

Away or Draw

75%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Sporting CP is the favorite with a 47% probability, the highest win probability from the pipeline
  • Sporting CP has achieved 4 wins and 1 draw against Rio Ave in the last 5 head-to-head matches
  • Sporting CP is very strong offensively with an average of 2.56 goals per game and concedes only 0.72 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Limited goal threat for Rio Ave: Only 83% of the usual starting XI strength is available, with key players not nominated
  • Sporting CP recently conceded an average of 1.5 goals, compared to 0.88 on average for the season
  • Rio Ave showed defensive stability in their last three home games, keeping two clean sheets
Overview

Rio Ave (12th place, 35 points) host Sporting CP (2nd place, 76 points) at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube. Liga Portugal match on May 11, 2026, 9:15 PM. Sporting CP is fighting for crucial points at the top, while Rio Ave is in the mid-table

Form

Rio Ave's form in the last five matches is LWDLD

This includes 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Rio Ave recently drew 0-0 against Gil Vicente

Sporting CP shows a form of DLDDW

This includes 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

They won their last match 5-1 against Vitória Guimarães

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Rio Ave scores an average of 1.03 goals per game and concedes 1.63 goals

At home, Rio Ave scores an average of 1.00 goals and concedes 1.56 goals

Sporting CP is very strong offensively with an average of 2.56 goals per game and concedes only 0.72 goals

Away from home, Sporting CP scores 2.62 goals and concedes 0.92 goals

The venue recorded an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting CP dominated with 4 wins and 1 draw

The goal difference is 15:4 in favor of Sporting CP

The last encounter on December 28, 2025, saw Sporting CP win 4-0 away

Sporting CP has clearly dominated recent matchups

Key Players

Rio Ave:

Jalen Blesa (Attacker) scored 6 goals this season and has an average rating of 7.1

Tamás Nikitscher (Midfielder) scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

Marios Vrousai (Defender) registered 1 assist in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.05

Not nominated: Andreas Ntoi (1G/2A), Jakub Brabec (1G/1A), Ole Pohlmann (1G/1A)

Sporting CP:

Luis Suárez (Attacker) has scored 26 goals and 6 assists this season with an average rating of 7.5

Pedro Gonçalves (Attacker) recorded 13 goals and 7 assists this season

Francisco Trincão (Midfielder) contributed 6 goals and 11 assists this season

Not nominated: Geny Catamo (6G/3A), Zeno Debast (0G/2A)

Goalkeepers

Rio Ave goalkeeper Cezary Miszta has achieved 6 clean sheets this season

Sporting CP goalkeeper Rui Silva recorded 14 clean sheets this season

Influences

Rio Ave scores an average of 1.00 goals at home and concedes 1.56 goals

Sporting CP is strong offensively away from home with an average of 2.62 goals and defensively stable with 0.92 goals conceded

The Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube saw an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 60% of the last 5 games at this stadium

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of the last 5 games at this stadium

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