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Liga Portugal

Tondela - Moreirense

05/11/2026, 07:15 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Tondela
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Moreirense
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

13%

0:1

10%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
TONMOR

Tondela

Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.29
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 8, 9 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.05
Rising form (1 vs 0.8 season average)
+0.05
Joe Hodge on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.3 vs 0.8 goals/match)

Moreirense

Attack weakness (0.49x league average)
-0.46
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 17, 9 places gap)
+0.04
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.00
Rodrigo Alonso Martín not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
Landerson on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tondela with Rony Lopes: 0.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Moreirense with Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Tondela: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Moreirense: 68% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Tondela: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

33%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts Tondela has a 41% chance for a home win or a 33% chance for a draw, resulting in a 74% probability for a home win or a draw
  • Tondela shows a positive trend and is currently scoring more often (1.0 goals) than their season average (0.8 goals)
  • Moreirense has a vulnerable away defense, conceding an average of 1.73 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Moreirense is missing Rodrigo Alonso Martín (3 goals, 3 assists) and Landerson (0 goals, 2 assists), reducing their usual starting XI goal threat to 85%
  • Tondela's home offense is rather weak with an average of 0.73 goals per game
  • Moreirense won the only direct encounter against Tondela with a score of 1-0
Overview

Tondela (17th place, 25 points) host Moreirense (8th place, 42 points) at Estádio João Cardoso

Liga Portugal match on May 11, 2026, 8:15 PM

Tondela is fighting for crucial points in the lower league table to avoid relegation

Moreirense is in the mid-table

Form

Tondela's current form across all competitions: DLLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches

Their last result was a win

Moreirense's form: LDWLW

They achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games

Moreirense also won their last match

Statistics

Tondela averages 0.75 goals scored per game this season and concedes 1.63 goals

In home games, Tondela's average is 0.73 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded per game

Moreirense scores an average of 1.16 goals per match and concedes 1.47 goals

Away from home, Moreirense scores 1.13 goals and concedes 1.73 goals per game

The venue has seen an average of 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Tondela and Moreirense so far

Moreirense won the only encounter on January 11, 2026, with a score of 1-0

Tondela has not managed to win a game against Moreirense yet

Key Players

For Tondela, Rony Lopes (2 goals, 2 assists), Maranhão (6 goals, 1 assist), and Cícero (1 goal, 1 assist) are key players in the starting lineup

Rony Lopes shows a rising form with 1 goal in the last 5 games

Maranhão recorded 0 goals and 0 assists in 5 games

Cícero scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games

For Moreirense, Alan de Souza Guimarães (5 goals, 5 assists), Travassos (5 goals, 3 assists), and Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga (4 goals, 0 assists) stand out

Alan de Souza Guimarães scored 2 goals in the last 5 games

Travassos scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga also contributed 1 goal in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Bernardo is the goalkeeper for Tondela and has kept 6 clean sheets this season

His form is positive with a rising rating of 7.21 in the last 5 games

For Moreirense, Caio Gobbo Secco is in goal, with a total of 8 clean sheets this season

His form is declining with a rating of 6.01 in the last 5 games

Influences

Tondela plays at home in Estádio João Cardoso

The home team scored an average of 0.73 goals and conceded 1.4 goals in home games

The stadium has shown an average of 2.2 goals per match in the last five games

In 40% of the last five matches, both teams scored, and in 40% over 2.5 goals were scored

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