Liga Portugal
Estoril - Benfica
05/16/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
3.3
2.3
0:2
10%1:2
10%1:1
9%0:3
8%1:3
8%What influences the xG?
Estoril
Benfica
The Lab
- 1Benfica: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- 2Estoril with André Lacximicant: 2.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Benfica: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4Benfica: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Estoril: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
12%
Draw
20%
Away Win
68%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
64%
Under 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
41%
Under 3.5
59%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
32%
Away or Draw
88%
No Draw
80%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a clear away win for Benfica with a probability of 68%
- Benfica's superior season performance (3rd place) and offensive strength (2.15 goals/game) significantly outweigh Estoril's figures
- Benfica dominates the head-to-head encounters with 5 wins in 5 matches and a goal difference of 12:3
Risk Factors
- Estoril registered an average of only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating low offensive threat
- Estoril's current goal production is faltering (0.6 goals/game), significantly below their season average (1.7 goals/game), reflecting a negative offensive form trend
Overview
Estoril (9th place, 39 points) host Benfica (3rd place, 77 points) at the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in a Liga Portugal match. The game takes place on May 16, 2026, 8:30 PM. Benfica aims to continue their impressive season and maintain their position behind the league leaders.
Form
Estoril shows poor form in their last five matches with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses (LLLDD). Their last game ended in a 1-1 away draw against Alverca. Benfica, on the other hand, is in excellent condition, with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five matches (WWWDD). They recently recorded two consecutive draws.
Statistics
Estoril scores an average of 1.61 goals per game and concedes 1.64 goals per game this season. At home, their average is 1.65 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded. Benfica is very strong offensively with an average of 2.15 goals per game and extremely stable defensively with only 0.73 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Benfica scores 2.14 goals and concedes 0.79 goals on average. Estoril's home venue averages 2.4 goals per game, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals occurring in 3 out of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head matches, Benfica completely dominated Estoril, with 5 wins for Benfica and no losses for Estoril. In these encounters, Benfica scored a total of 12 goals, while Estoril managed 3 goals. The last meeting on January 3, 2026, resulted in a 3-1 victory for Benfica.
Key Players
For Estoril, Yanis Begraoui (20 goals, 1 assist), João Carvalho (6 goals, 12 assists), and Jordan Holsgrove (1 goal, 7 assists) are key players, although their recent form shows a declining trend. For Benfica, Vangelis Pavlidis (23 goals, 4 assists), Andreas Schjelderup (7 goals, 5 assists), and Richard Ríos (4 goals, 4 assists) stand out, with Schjelderup and Ríos showing a rising form trend.
Goalkeepers
Joel Robles is Estoril's goalkeeper and has achieved 5 clean sheets this season. For Benfica, Anatoliy Trubin is in goal and has kept 14 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Estoril has scored an average of 1.65 goals and conceded 1.35 goals in home games, indicating a moderate home advantage. The venue statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per game. In 60% of the last five matches at the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals.