Liga Portugal
Moreirense - AVS
05/16/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
1.8
0.8
0:0
18%1:1
15%1:0
15%0:1
12%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
Moreirense
AVS
The Lab
- 1AVS with Guilherme Neiva Silva: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Moreirense with Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
36%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
56%
Under 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
27%
Under 2.5
73%
Over 3.5
11%
Under 3.5
89%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
64%
Both Score
Yes
37%
No
63%
Key Factors
- AVS is currently in positive form (2 wins, 3 draws) with a counter-attacking style (average 4.6 shots on target)
- Moreirense has a dominant head-to-head record against AVS, with 2 wins and a goal difference of 6:1 in 3 matches
- The mathematical analysis predicts a tight game with 37% for a home win and 36% for a draw
Risk Factors
- AVS concedes an average of 2.67 goals per away game
- Moreirense averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- CRITICAL: Moreirense fields only 65% of its usual starting eleven strength; Alan de Souza Guimarães, Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga, Afonso Assis Cunha Almeida, and Landerson are not in the lineup
Overview
Moreirense (8th place, 42 points) host AVS (18th place, 20 points) at the Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Liga Portugal match on May 16, 2026, 4:30 PM. The mathematical analysis sees a home win with 37% probability or a draw with 36%.
Form
Moreirense's last five games show a form of DWLWL, which means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last match ended in a loss. AVS is in top form with DDDWW, consisting of 2 wins and 3 draws with no losses. Their last game resulted in a win.
Statistics
Moreirense scores an average of 1.12 goals per game and concedes 1.48 goals. At home, they score 1.11 goals and concede 1.17. AVS has the weakest offense with an average of 0.82 goals per game and concedes 2.03 goals. Their away defense is particularly vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.67 goals per game. At the Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, an average of 2.0 goals per game are scored, and both teams scored in 40% of matches.
Head-to-Head
In the three head-to-head matches between Moreirense and AVS, Moreirense recorded two wins, while AVS won no games, with one draw. Moreirense scored 6 goals, AVS only 1. The last encounter on January 3, 2026, saw Moreirense win away with a 2:0 score.
Key Players
For Moreirense, Travassos (5 goals, 3 assists, average rating 6.88), Rodrigo Alonso Martín (3 goals, 3 assists, average rating 6.69, rising form), and Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso (0 goals, 4 assists, average rating 6.66) are key players. For AVS, Roni (2 goals, 0 assists, average rating 6.90, rising form), Guilherme Neiva Silva (2 goals, 3 assists, average rating 6.64, rising form), and Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola (1 goal, 4 assists, average rating 6.62, rising form) stand out.
Goalkeepers
Moreirense has Michael Simões Domingues in goal and has achieved 8 clean sheets this season. For AVS, Simão Verza Bertelli is the goalkeeper, contributing to 4 clean sheets.
Influences
Moreirense scores an average of 1.11 goals at home and concedes 1.17 goals. The home record in the last five games at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas shows an average of 2.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of matches. Only 20% of games ended with over 2.5 goals.