Liga Portugal
Sporting Braga - Estrela Amadora
05/16/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.4
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
12%2:0
11%0:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Sporting Braga
Estrela Amadora
The Lab
- 1Estrela Amadora with Otavio Manoel Galdino Fernandes: 2.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 2Sporting Braga with VĂctor GĂłmez: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
52%
Draw
29%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
48%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Favoritism: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Sporting Braga with approximately 52% probability
- Offensive Power: Braga averages 1.88 goals per home game, while Estrela Amadora concedes 2.14 goals per away game
- Form and Standings: Braga is fighting for Europe, while Amadora, 15th in the league with a form of LLLLD, is involved in the relegation battle
Risk Factors
- Poor Form: Sporting Braga's goal production is currently stagnant at an average of 1.4 goals, with a season average of 2.0 goals
- Injury/Suspension: V. Carvalho Vieira (Yellow Card Suspension) is out for Sporting Braga, and R. Pereira de Pinho (Yellow Card Suspension) for Estrela Amadora
- Tactics: Estrela Amadora averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 matches
Overview
Sporting Braga (4th place, 58 points) host Estrela Amadora (15th place, 29 points) at the EstĂĄdio Municipal de Braga
Liga Portugal match on May 16, 2026, 6:00 PM
Braga is fighting for international spots, while Estrela Amadora is battling against relegation
Form
Sporting Braga's form across all competitions: LWDLD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
Their last league appearance ended in a draw
Estrela Amadora's form across all competitions: LLLLD (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses)
Their last match also ended in a draw
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Sporting Braga averages 1.88 goals scored per game and concedes 1.03 goals per game this season
At home, they score 1.88 goals and concede 0.94 goals per home game
Estrela Amadora averages 1.09 goals scored per game and concedes 1.64 goals per game this season
Away from home, Estrela Amadora concedes an average of 2.14 goals per away game
In the last 5 games at EstĂĄdio Municipal de Braga, an average of 2.4 total goals were scored per match
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting Braga recorded 3 wins, Estrela Amadora 0 wins, and there were 2 draws
Sporting Braga scored a total of 12 goals, Estrela Amadora 6 goals
The last encounter on January 3, 2026, ended in a 3-3 draw
Sporting Braga has been more dominant in recent encounters
Key Players
Sporting Braga: Ricardo Horta leads the team with 14 season goals and 4 assists, but his form is declining
Pau VĂctor showed rising form with 9 goals and 4 assists
Fran Navarro contributed 6 goals and 1 assist
Estrela Amadora: Abraham Marcus is a key player with 5 goals and 5 assists, but his form is declining
Ianis Stoica scored 3 goals and 2 assists
Paulo Moreira recorded 3 goals and 2 assists
Goalkeepers
Lukas Hornicek for Sporting Braga made 32 appearances this season and kept 6 clean sheets in home games
Renan Ribeiro for Estrela Amadora also appeared 32 times and kept 3 clean sheets in away games
Influences
Sporting Braga benefits from a home advantage, scoring 1.88 home goals and conceding only 0.94 home goals
At EstĂĄdio Municipal de Braga, an average of 2.4 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches
The grass surface is expected
No weather data is available