Liga Portugal
Nacional - Vitória Guimarães
05/16/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.3
1.3
1:1
15%0:0
12%0:1
11%0:2
9%1:2
8%What influences the xG?
Nacional
Vitória Guimarães
The Lab
- 1Nacional with José Gomes: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Vitória Guimarães: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- 3Vitória Guimarães: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Nacional: 65% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
27%
Draw
31%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
73%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a higher probability of 42% for an away win
- League Position: Vitória Guimarães is in 7th place with 42 points, while Nacional is 14th with 31 points
- Head-to-Head: Vitória Guimarães won 2 of the 3 most recent encounters, Nacional none
Risk Factors
- Away Weakness: Vitória Guimarães concedes an average of 2.73 goals per away game
- Home Form: Nacional has lost its last two home matches
- Injuries: Nacional is missing I. Mendes Fernandes and U. Rocha due to unknown injuries
Overview
Nacional (14th place, 31 points) host Vitória Guimarães (7th place, 42 points) at Estádio da Madeira. The Liga Portugal match is on May 16, 2026, 7:00 PM. Nacional is fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle, while Vitória Guimarães aims to consolidate its mid-table position
Form
Nacional is in a difficult spell of form with LWWLL in their last five matches, including two recent losses. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss. Vitória Guimarães shows a similar trend with DWWLL, also with two consecutive losses. Nacional's goal production is currently stagnant (0.8 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.1 goals per game). Vitória Guimarães also recorded stagnant goal production in recent matches (1.0 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.3 goals per game)
Statistics
Nacional scores an average of 1.06 goals and concedes 1.36 goals per game. At home, these values are 1.05 goals scored and 1.15 goals conceded. Vitória Guimarães has a season average of 1.18 goals scored and 1.48 goals conceded per game. Away, these values are 1.18 goals scored and 2.73 goals conceded. Nacional kept 7 clean sheets, Vitória Guimarães 10 times. At Estádio da Madeira, there was an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last five matches. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In their three recent head-to-head encounters, Vitória Guimarães impressed with two wins and one draw. Nacional failed to win any of these matches. The goal difference of 6:4 favors Vitória Guimarães. The last encounter on January 2, 2026, ended with a 2-1 victory for Vitória Guimarães
Key Players
For Nacional, Jesús Ramírez is the top scorer with 16 season goals and a season average rating of 7.19. Paulinho Bóia contributed 4 goals and 2 assists. José Gomes, a defender, provided 1 goal and 5 assists. For Vitória Guimarães, Samu is crucial with 7 goals and 3 assists, and his form is rising. Gustavo Silva scored 5 goals and assisted 2. Oumar Camara also scored 5 season goals. Not in the squad: Noah Jose Saviolo (2G/4A), Beni Mukendi (1G/1A), Tony Strata (1G/1A), João Mendes (1G/1A), Diogo Sousa (1G/1A)
Goalkeepers
Nacional's goalkeeper, Kaique, played in 27 matches and achieved an average rating of 6.92. He contributed to 7 clean sheets for his team. Charles is Vitória Guimarães' goalkeeper, playing in 18 matches with an average rating of 6.82. His team achieved 10 clean sheets this season
Influences
Nacional has a home advantage at Estádio da Madeira, where they score 1.05 goals and concede 1.15 goals. The stadium saw an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 games. 40% of matches ended with both teams scoring, and 40% had over 2.5 goals