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Liga Portugal

Porto - Santa Clara

05/16/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Porto
1.6
Total xG
2.2
Santa Clara
0.6
Most Likely Scores

1:0

16%

2:0

14%

1:1

12%

0:0

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
PORSC

Porto

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.85
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.21
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap)
+0.08
Attack strength (1.22x league average)
-0.02
Gabri Veiga on the bench (3 goals, 8 assists)
PepĂȘ on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Oskar Pietuszewski on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Pablo Rosario on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Zaidu Sanusi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Santa Clara

Rising form (1.5 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.10
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap)
-0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.01
Gonçalo PaciĂȘncia not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Porto: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Porto with Rodrigo Mora: 4.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Santa Clara with Darlan: 6.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Santa Clara: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Porto: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

28%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

41%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

39%

No

61%

Key Factors
  • Table position and home strength: Porto is the league leader with a strong home performance (Avg. 2.0 goals scored, Avg. 0.38 goals conceded), while Santa Clara is mid-table and weaker away
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 59%
  • Head-to-head record: Porto has dominated the last three direct encounters against Santa Clara (2 wins, 1 draw)
Risk Factors
  • Porto's recent goal production is lower at Avg. 1.2 goals compared to their season average of Avg. 1.9 goals
  • Santa Clara averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Porto lost their last match against AVS with a score of 1-3
Overview

Porto (1st place, 85 points) hosts Santa Clara (12th place, 36 points) at EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo. This Liga Portugal match takes place on May 16, 2026, 3:30 PM. Porto aims to solidify its top position, while Santa Clara seeks to maintain its mid-table standing

Form

Porto's current form (LWWWL) shows 3 wins and 2 losses. Their last game resulted in a loss. Santa Clara's form (LDWDW) includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their last game ended in a win. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Porto averaged 1.97 goals scored and 0.55 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they scored 2.0 goals and conceded only 0.38 goals per game. Santa Clara scored an average of 0.97 goals and conceded 1.21 goals. Away, Santa Clara averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded. Porto kept 20 clean sheets, with 11 at home. Santa Clara had 10 clean sheets, with 3 away. EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo averages 2.2 total goals per game. Both teams scored in 40% of matches, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 20% of matches

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches between Porto and Santa Clara, Porto secured 2 wins and 1 draw. Santa Clara failed to win any of these direct encounters. Porto scored a total of 4 goals, while Santa Clara scored 1 goal. The last meeting on January 4, 2026, ended in a 1-0 victory for Porto. Porto has been dominant in recent direct matchups

Key Players

For Porto, Deniz GĂŒl, Victor Froholdt, and Alberto Costa are key players. Deniz GĂŒl scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games, showing a rising form trend. Victor Froholdt has 6 goals and 7 assists this season. Alberto Costa contributed 8 assists this season. For Santa Clara, Gabriel Silva, Serginho, and Luis Fernando stand out. Gabriel Silva scored 2 goals in the last 5 games. Serginho recorded 4 goals and 3 assists this season. Luis Fernando provided 2 assists in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Diogo Costa, Porto's goalkeeper, recorded 20 clean sheets in 32 appearances this season. Santa Clara's goalkeeper, JoĂŁo Afonso, plays for a team that has achieved 10 clean sheets this season

Influences

Porto shows strong offensive performance at home with an average of 2.0 goals per game and a very stable defense with only 0.38 goals conceded per game. Santa Clara, on the other hand, is weaker offensively away from home with an average of 1.0 goals per game and more vulnerable defensively with 1.53 goals conceded per game. EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo has an average of 2.2 total goals per game

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