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Liga Portugal

Casa Pia - Rio Ave

05/16/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Casa Pia
0.9
Total xG
1.8
Rio Ave
0.9
Most Likely Scores

0:0

18%

1:1

15%

0:1

13%

1:0

13%

0:2

7%
What influences the xG?
CPRA

Casa Pia

Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-0.78
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average)
-0.16
Jérémy Livolant on the bench (3 goals, 8 assists)
Cassiano on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists)
Rafael Brito on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
53% of goal output missing (only 44% available)

Rio Ave

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.67
Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.38
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Marios Vrousai on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Ole Pohlmann on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Casa Pia with Pedro Rosas: 0.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Rio Ave: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Casa Pia: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Rio Ave: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

36%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

57%

Under 1.5

43%

Over 2.5

28%

Under 2.5

72%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

64%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact for Casa Pia: Only 44% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, without Jérémy Livolant (3G/8A), Cassiano (6G/0A), Rafael Brito (2G/1A)
  • Current form trend favors Rio Ave: The team is scoring more frequently recently (1.3) than their season average (1.1), while Casa Pia's goal production is stagnant
  • Historical head-to-head record favors Rio Ave: The away team recently dominated direct encounters, winning the last match 3-1
Risk Factors
  • Low offensive output for Casa Pia: The team averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Missing players for Rio Ave: B. Aguilera Zamora (Cruciate Ligament Tear), F. Petrasso (Indirect Card Suspension), and R. da Silva Pae (Indirect Card Suspension) are unavailable
  • Low-scoring venue: Estádio Pina Manique averaged only 1.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with no game exceeding 2.5 goals
Overview

Casa Pia (16th place, 29 points) host Rio Ave (13th place, 35 points) at Estádio Pina Manique. The Liga Portugal match takes place on May 16, 2026, at 6:00 PM. Both teams are in the bottom third of the table, with Casa Pia level on points with a relegation spot. The mathematical analysis suggests a very balanced match, with a home win probability of 32%, a draw of 36%, and an away win of 32%

Form

Casa Pia's form in their last five matches across all competitions is LLLLW, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Their last result was a 1-0 away win against Vitória Guimarães. Rio Ave's form in their last five matches is WDLDL, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their last game ended in a 1-4 home defeat against Sporting CP

Statistics

Casa Pia scores an average of 0.91 goals per game and concedes 1.7 goals per game this season. At home, they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded. Casa Pia has seen both teams score in 15 matches and over 2.5 goals in 15 matches. Rio Ave averages 1.03 goals scored and 1.7 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Rio Ave averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.59 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 17 of Rio Ave's matches, and over 2.5 goals were seen in 20 matches. The Estádio Pina Manique has an average of 1.2 goals per game in the last five matches, with both teams scoring in two games and no games exceeding 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 previous head-to-head matches, Casa Pia recorded 1 home win, Rio Ave secured 2 away wins, and there were 2 draws. The goal difference is 6:8 in favor of Rio Ave. The last encounter on January 4, 2026, saw Rio Ave win 3-1 away

Key Players

For Casa Pia, Gaizka Larrazabal with 4 goals and 4 assists, and João Marques with 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games, are important offensive players. David Sousa is another relevant player with 2 season goals. For Rio Ave, Jalen Blesa stands out with 6 season goals. Dario Spikic has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists, while Diogo Bezerra scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in his last 5 games, showing a rising form trend

Goalkeepers

Patrick Sequeira is the goalkeeper for Casa Pia and has recorded 7 clean sheets for his team this season. For Rio Ave, Ennio Van Der Gouw is in goal. Rio Ave has achieved a total of 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

Home team Casa Pia has scored an average of 0.89 goals and conceded 1.32 goals at home this season. Rio Ave scored an average of 1.0 goals and conceded 1.59 goals away. Venue statistics at Estádio Pina Manique show an average of 1.2 goals per game in the last five matches. Both teams scored in 40% of games, and no games had over 2.5 goals

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