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Liga Portugal

Arouca - Tondela

05/16/2026, 05:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Arouca
1.6
Total xG
2.7
Tondela
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
AROTON

Arouca

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.48
Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 17, 6 places gap)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Hyun-ju Lee on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists)
José Fontán not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)

Tondela

Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 11, 6 places gap)
-0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.04
Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.01
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tondela with Tiago Manso: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Arouca: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    Arouca with Mateo Flores: 6.9 goals/90 min. Without: 2.5 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Arouca: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Arouca: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

28%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Arouca with a 47% probability
  • Arouca sits in 11th place, significantly above relegation-threatened Tondela in 17th place in the league table
  • Tondela shows offensive weakness away from home, averaging only 0.76 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Tondela concedes an average of 1.82 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities
  • Arouca has also shown defensive frailties at home, conceding an average of 1.61 goals per home game
  • The limited head-to-head history of only one match restricts the predictive power of historical data
Overview

Arouca (11th place, 39 points) host Tondela (17th place, 28 points) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Liga Portugal match on May 16, 2026, 6:00 PM

Arouca seeks to consolidate its mid-table position, while Tondela fights against relegation

Form

Arouca's form in the last five games is LWLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) with two wins, one draw, and two losses

Arouca won their last game 3-1 away against Gil Vicente

Tondela also has a form of LLDWW in their last five matches, with two wins, one draw, and two losses

Tondela won their last two matches against Moreirense and Casa Pia

Statistics

Arouca averages 1.33 goals scored per game and concedes 1.91 goals

At home, they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.61 goals conceded

Tondela averages 0.79 goals scored per game and concedes 1.58 goals

Away, they average 0.76 goals scored and 1.82 goals conceded

The Estádio Municipal de Arouca sees an average of 3.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and 4 of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

Arouca consistently scores around 1.4 goals per game, while Tondela is currently scoring more frequently (1.0) than their season average (0.9)

Head-to-Head

Both teams have only met once before

Arouca won this encounter 3-1 away against Tondela on January 3, 2026

The record shows Arouca as the dominant team in this single head-to-head match

Key Players

For Arouca, Alfonso Trezza with 8 goals and 3 assists, and Iván Barbero with 8 goals and 2 assists are important attackers

Naïs Djouahra contributed 6 goals and 3 assists

For Tondela, Maranhão with 6 goals and 2 assists, and Rony Lopes with 3 goals and 2 assists are the top scorers

Cícero has scored 1 goal and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Ignacio de Arruabarrena is Arouca's goalkeeper, with 15 appearances and an average rating of 6.83

Bernardo is Tondela's goalkeeper, with 33 season appearances and an average rating of 6.96

Both teams have kept 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Estádio Municipal de Arouca is known for high-scoring games, averaging 3.2 goals per match

Arouca has scored 24 goals and conceded 29 goals in 18 home games

Tondela has scored 13 goals and conceded 31 goals in 17 away games

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