Liga Portugal
Famalicão - Alverca
05/16/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.1
0.9
1:1
15%0:0
14%1:0
13%0:1
9%2:0
9%What influences the xG?
Famalicão
Alverca
The Lab
- 1Famalicão: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- 2Famalicão: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 3Alverca: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Famalicão with Ibrahima Ba: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Alverca: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
33%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
63%
Under 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
35%
Under 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Famalicão with a probability of 42%
- Famalicão demonstrates a solid home defense, conceding an average of 0.57 goals per home game
- Famalicão is unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 win, 4 draws), while Alverca shows mixed form (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
Risk Factors
- The pipeline analysis indicates a high probability of a draw at 33%
- In the only head-to-head encounter, Alverca won away with a score of 1-0
- Famalicão has frequently drawn in their last 5 games (4 draws), suggesting difficulties in securing wins
Overview
Famalicão (5th place, 53 points) host Alverca (10th place, 39 points) at the Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho
The Liga Portugal match takes place on May 16, 2026, 9:30 PM
Famalicão is fighting for European qualification, while Alverca is in the mid-table
Form
Famalicão's current form across all competitions: DDDWD
This corresponds to 1 win, 4 draws, and 0 losses in the last 5 games
Famalicão last drew 0-0 with Estrela Amadora
Alverca's form across all competitions: WLWLD
This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 games
Alverca last drew 1-1 with Estoril
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Famalicão averages 1.24 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded per game this season
Alverca averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.55 goals conceded per game
Famalicão kept 16 clean sheets, Alverca 6 clean sheets
Both teams scored in 12 of Famalicão's games, and in 19 of Alverca's games
At the Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, an average of 2.0 goals per game are scored
In 2 of 5 stadium games, both teams scored, and in 1 of 5 games, more than 2.5 goals were scored
Head-to-Head
There has only been 1 head-to-head match between these two teams
Alverca won this single match 1-0
The last encounter was on January 4, 2026, where Alverca won away
Alverca has had the upper hand in recent head-to-head encounters
Key Players
For Famalicão, Gil Dias is an important offensive player with 4 goals and 7 assists in 32 season appearances and stable form
Sorriso has 5 goals and 4 assists in 32 season appearances and shows stable form
Mathias de Amorim, midfielder, has 4 goals and 2 assists and his form is rising
For Alverca, Figueiredo is a key player with 6 goals and 2 assists in 26 season appearances, and his form is rising
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira has 2 goals and 4 assists in 19 season appearances and also shows rising form
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos, midfielder, has 2 goals and 5 assists in 29 season appearances
Goalkeepers
Lazar Carević is Famalicão's goalkeeper, he has 16 clean sheets this season
Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira is Alverca's goalkeeper, he has 6 clean sheets this season
Influences
Famalicão has a home advantage with an average of 1.24 goals scored and 0.57 goals conceded in home games
Alverca concedes an average of 1.75 goals per away game
The Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho recorded an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 40% of home games at the stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 20%