Copa Del Rey
Atlético de Madrid - Real Sociedad
04/18/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.9
1.5
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Atlético de Madrid
Real Sociedad
The Lab
- 1Atlético Madrid with Juan Musso: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Real Sociedad with Brais Méndez: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Real Sociedad: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 4Atlético Madrid: 71% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)
- 5Atlético Madrid: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
28%
Away Win
40%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
60%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Real Sociedad's recent positive attacking form (2.2 goals/game) contrasts Atlético's struggling goal production (1.4 goals/game)
- Mathematical analysis gives Real Sociedad a slight edge with a 40% win probability and 1.51 expected goals
- Tactical clash: Atlético's counter-oriented style (44% possession) against Real Sociedad's ball-possession dominance (55% possession)
Risk Factors
- Atlético Madrid has suffered 4 losses in their last 5 games
- Real Sociedad concedes an average of 2.18 goals per away game
- Atlético Madrid's attacking output has declined recently (1.4 goals/game compared to 2.0 season average)
Overview
Atlético Madrid will face Real Sociedad in the Copa Del Rey on April 18, 2026, 9:00 PM at the Estadio Olímpico de Sevilla. The match will take place at a neutral venue.
Form
Atlético Madrid's form across all competitions is 'LLWLL', with 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5 games. They are currently on a 2-game losing streak. Real Sociedad's form is 'LWLWD', with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches. Their last game was a draw. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Atlético Madrid averages 1.65 goals scored and 1.03 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded. Real Sociedad averages 1.58 goals scored and 1.55 goals conceded per game. Away, their average is 1.55 goals scored and 2.18 goals conceded. At the Estadio Olímpico de Sevilla, the last 5 games have seen an average of 2.8 total goals per match, with both teams scoring in 4 of 5 games (80%) and over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 games (40%).
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Madrid has dominated with 3 wins compared to 0 for Real Sociedad, with 2 draws. Atlético Madrid scored a total of 11 goals, while Real Sociedad scored 4 goals. The last encounter on March 7, 2026, ended in a 3:2 victory for Atlético Madrid.
Key Players
For Atlético Madrid, Julián Alvarez, with 8 goals and 4 assists and an average rating of 7.14 this season, and Antoine Griezmann (6 goals, 1 assist, avg. 6.97) are key attacking players. Giuliano Simeone contributed 4 goals and 6 assists with a season rating of 6.98. Real Sociedad relies on Mikel Oyarzabal, who recorded 12 goals and 3 assists with a season rating of 7.15. Gonçalo Guedes (8 goals, 4 assists, avg. 6.90) and Carlos Soler (4 goals, 3 assists, avg. 7.07), whose form trend is currently rising, are also key players.
Goalkeepers
Atlético Madrid's goalkeeper Juan Musso has a season average rating of 7.11 and showed a rating of 7.21 in the last 5 games. His team recorded a total of 12 clean sheets. Real Sociedad's starting goalkeeper Unai Marrero has had no appearances this season, and his team achieved 3 clean sheets this season.
Influences
The Estadio Olímpico de Sevilla is a neutral venue, which could diminish a traditional home advantage. At this stadium, the average is 2.8 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% of matches. Atlético Madrid averaged 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded in home games, while Real Sociedad averaged 1.55 goals scored and 2.18 goals conceded away.