Bundesliga
SC Freiburg - FC Union Berlin
03/15/2026, 04:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
3.1
1.3
1:1
12%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
SC Freiburg
FC Union Berlin
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
26%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for SC Freiburg with a 47% probability
- SC Freiburg shows defensive stability at home, conceding an average of 0.94 goals per game
- FC Union Berlin concedes an average of 2.10 goals per away match
Risk Factors
- SC Freiburg with only 3 days rest since their last match
- SC Freiburg is missing key players like Vincenzo Grifo (7G/1A) and Yuito Suzuki (4G/3A), accounting for only 75% of their usual goal threat
- FC Union Berlin dominated the last 5 head-to-head matches with 2 wins and 3 draws
Overview
SC Freiburg (8th place, 34 points) host FC Union Berlin (11th place, 28 points) at Europa-Park Stadion
Bundesliga match on March 15, 2026, 5:30 PM
Freiburg aims to close the gap to international spots, while Union needs crucial points in the fight for survival
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
SC Freiburg's form in the last five matches is LWLDL with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Their last game was a 0-1 loss against Genk
SC Freiburg's goal production is currently at an average of 1.0 goals, while the season average is 1.5 goals, indicating a negative trend
FC Union Berlin's form in the last five matches is DLWLL with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Union recently lost 1-4 against Werder Bremen
FC Union Berlin's goal production is currently at an average of 1.0 goals, with a season average of 1.3 goals, also a negative trend
Statistics
SC Freiburg scores an average of 1.48 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.68 goals per game this season
At home, Freiburg is stronger offensively with an average of 1.50 goals and more stable defensively with an average of 0.94 goals conceded
Both teams scored in 15 matches, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 16 matches
FC Union Berlin scores an average of 1.20 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.68 goals per game this season
Away from home, Union scores an average of 1.20 goals and concedes an average of 2.10 goals
For Union, both teams scored in 15 matches, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 14 matches
An average of 2.8 goals per game were scored at the Europa-Park Stadion
In 3 out of 5 games at the stadium, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 games, more than 2.5 goals were scored
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, SC Freiburg has 0 wins, FC Union Berlin has 2 wins, and there were 3 draws
The goal difference is 2:4 in favor of Union Berlin
The last encounter on November 1, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw
FC Union Berlin has been the more dominant side in recent direct clashes
Key Players
For SC Freiburg, Igor Matanovic stands out in attack with 6 season goals and 1 assist
Derry Scherhant contributed 4 goals and 1 assist
Johan Manzambi scored 3 goals and provided 2 assists
For FC Union Berlin, Andrej Ilic shines with 1 season goal and 8 assists
Ilyas Ansah contributed 5 goals and 2 assists
Rani Khedira scored 5 goals
Goalkeepers
Noah Atubolu is the goalkeeper for SC Freiburg, he has kept 5 clean sheets in 25 games
The goalkeeper for FC Union Berlin is Matheo Raab
Union Berlin has kept 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
An average of 2.8 goals per game were scored at the Europa-Park Stadion
In 3 out of 5 games at the stadium, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 games, more than 2.5 goals were scored
SC Freiburg, playing on grass at home this season, averages 1.50 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded
FC Union Berlin, playing on grass away from home, scored an average of 1.20 goals and conceded an average of 2.10 goals