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FA Cup

Newcastle United - Manchester City

03/07/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Newcastle United
1.5
Total xG
3.4
Manchester City
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

2:2

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NUMC

Newcastle United

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.24
Rising form (2.8 vs 2 season average)
+0.24
Attack strength (1.4x league average)
+0.21
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap)
-0.17
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.02
Anthony Gordon on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Joelinton on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Jacob Ramsey not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Dan Burn on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

Manchester City

Attack strength (1.2x league average)
+0.75
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.29
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap)
+0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.08
Erling Haaland not in squad (22 goals, 7 assists)
Phil Foden on the bench (7 goals, 3 assists)
Antoine Semenyo on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Bernardo Silva   on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Rúben Dias  on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Rayan Aït-Nouri on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
64% of goal output missing (only 47% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.3 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

25%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

65%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 3.5

57%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

67%

No

33%

Key Factors
  • Critical Squad Impact: Manchester City is missing key players, with only 47% of their usual starting XI's goal-scoring threat available
  • Strong Away Form and H2H Dominance: Manchester City has 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games, plus 4 H2H wins in 5 encounters, supporting an away win probability of 45%
  • High-Scoring Venue and Offensive Trends: St. James' Park sees an average of 4.0 goals per game, and Newcastle United's recent goal production (2.8 goals recently) has increased compared to their season average (2.0 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Both teams had a short recovery period of only 3 days since their last match
  • Newcastle United is missing several players like B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura (9 goals, 4 assists), which could affect team strength
Overview

Newcastle United hosts Manchester City at St. James' Park. This FA Cup match will take place on March 7, 2026, 9:00 PM. Manchester City is considered the favorite despite absences.

Form

Newcastle United shows a mixed form of WLWLW in their last five games, with 3 wins and 2 losses. Their last match was a win. Manchester City, on the other hand, is in strong form with WWWWD, consisting of 4 wins and 1 draw. Their last match was a draw.

Statistics

Newcastle United scores an average of 1.45 goals per game and concedes 1.48 goals per game. In home matches, the average is 1.47 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded. Manchester City shows a stronger record with an average of 2.03 goals scored and only 0.93 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Manchester City scores an average of 2.09 goals and concedes 1.45 goals. At St. James' Park, the last 5 matches saw an average of 4.0 total goals per game, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals occurring in 4 out of 5 matches.

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manchester City dominates with 4 wins compared to 1 win for Newcastle United. The goal difference is 4:12 in favor of Manchester City. The last encounter on February 21, 2026, ended in a 1:2 away victory for Manchester City.

Key Players

For Newcastle United, Nick Woltemade (7 goals, 2 assists, last 5 games: 1 goal), Harvey Barnes (5 goals, 0 assists), and Malick Thiaw (4 goals, 0 assists, last 5 games: 1 goal) are important players. For Manchester City, Matheus Nunes (1 goal, 4 assists), Jérémy Doku (1 goal, 4 assists, last 5 games: 2 assists), and Nico O'Reilly (4 goals, 3 assists) stand out.

Goalkeepers

Newcastle United's goalkeeper, Aaron Ramsdale, has not kept a clean sheet in 8 season appearances. The team has achieved 3 clean sheets in home games. For Manchester City, James Trafford is in goal, who has also not recorded a clean sheet in 3 season appearances. Manchester City has kept 5 clean sheets in away games.

Influences

St. James' Park is a venue with high offensive potential, with an average of 4.0 goals per game in the last 5 encounters. Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 out of 5 matches. Newcastle United scores an average of 1.47 goals at home and concedes 1.26 goals. Manchester City scores 2.09 goals away and concedes 1.45 goals.

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