Champions League
Bayer 04 Leverkusen - Arsenal
03/11/2026, 05:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.9
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
7%0:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Arsenal
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
28%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Arsenal has a higher win probability of 42% compared to 30% for Leverkusen
- Form: Arsenal is in excellent form with four wins and one draw in the last five games
- Table Position: Arsenal is the unbeaten league leader, Leverkusen is in 16th place
Risk Factors
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen shows a stagnating goal production (1.3 compared to a season average of 1.9)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen has an average of only 3.2 shots on target per game
Overview
Bayer 04 Leverkusen (16th place, 12 points) hosts Arsenal (1st place, 24 points) at the BayArena for a Champions League match. The game takes place on March 11, 2026, 6:45 PM. Arsenal leads the table unbeaten, while Leverkusen fights for a better position
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen's form in their last five games across all competitions is LDDWD. This includes one win, three draws, and one loss. The last game ended in a draw, while the second to last game was a win. Arsenal is in excellent form with DWWWW from their last five matches. They achieved four wins and one draw, with the last game being a win. The visitors' form shows a streak of four consecutive wins
Statistics
Bayer 04 Leverkusen scores an average of 1.92 goals per game and concedes 1.28 goals. At home, they impress with an average of 1.92 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded. Arsenal shows strong season performance with an average of 1.97 goals per game and only 0.73 goals conceded. Away, they score an average of 2.0 goals and concede 1.0 goal. Both teams scored in 14 of Leverkusen's 25 games and 15 of Arsenal's 30 games. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 14 of Leverkusen's games and 16 of Arsenal's games. At the venue, an average of 2.0 goals were scored in the last five games, with both teams scoring in 1 of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the two previous head-to-head encounters, Arsenal secured one win and one draw. Arsenal won the last meeting on February 26, 2002, with a score of 4:1. Overall, Arsenal leads with 5 goals scored compared to Bayer 04 Leverkusen's 2 goals in these matches
Key Players
For Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Alejandro Grimaldo with 4 goals and 2 assists and an average rating of 7.63, Aleix GarcĂa with 2 goals and 0 assists at 7.29, and Christian Kofane with 1 goal and 1 assist at 6.62 are significant. For Arsenal, Gabriel Martinelli with 6 goals and 1 assist at 7.45, Viktor Gyökeres with 4 goals and 2 assists at 7.12, and Bukayo Saka with 2 goals and 2 assists at 7.28 are key players. Patrik Schick (4G/1A) is not in Bayer 04 Leverkusen's starting lineup. Leandro Trossard (1G/3A) is not in Arsenal's starting lineup
Goalkeepers
Bayer 04 Leverkusen's goalkeeper, Janis Blaswich, has kept 7 clean sheets this season. Arsenal's goalkeeper David Raya has kept 14 clean sheets this season
Influences
Bayer 04 Leverkusen shows a strong offense at home with an average of 1.92 goals and a solid defense with 0.85 goals conceded per home game. The BayArena stadium recorded an average of 2.0 goals in the last five games. In 1 of 5 games, both teams scored and in 2 of 5 games, over 2.5 goals were scored