Champions League
FC Bayern München - Atalanta
03/18/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.5
3.7
1.2
2:1
9%3:1
8%3:0
7%2:2
5%4:1
5%What influences the xG?
FC Bayern München
Atalanta
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
66%
Draw
19%
Away Win
15%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Under 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
71%
Under 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
50%
Under 3.5
50%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
85%
Away or Draw
34%
No Draw
81%
Both Score
Yes
64%
No
36%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 66% probability and 2.52 expected home goals
- Form and head-to-head: Bayern München's dominant form (4 wins, 1 draw) and the clear 6-1 victory in the last head-to-head against Atalanta
- Offensive strength: FC Bayern München is offensively strong with an average of 3.58 goals per game and shows 8.8 shots on target
Overview
FC Bayern München (2nd place, 21 points) host Atalanta (15th place, 13 points) at the Allianz Arena. Champions League match on March 18, 2026, 9:00 PM. Bayern aim to assert their title ambitions against an opponent in poor form.
Form
FC Bayern München's form (WWWWD) shows 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 games. They recently drew 1-1 against Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Atalanta (LDDLD) has achieved 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 games. Their last match was a 1-1 draw against Inter. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
FC Bayern München shows a strong offense with an average of 3.58 goals per game and concedes an average of 0.96 goals per game. At home, they average 3.47 goals scored and 0.87 goals conceded. Atalanta averages 1.38 goals scored per game and concedes 0.93 goals per game. Away, they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded. At the Allianz Arena, an average of 4.2 goals are scored per game. In 80% of matches, both teams scored, and 80% ended with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams. The last encounter on March 10, 2026, ended in a 6-1 away victory for FC Bayern München against Atalanta. In total, FC Bayern München scored 6 goals and Atalanta scored 1 goal in direct confrontations.
Key Players
For FC Bayern München, Luis Díaz with 9 goals and 6 assists at the Allianz Arena, Serge Gnabry with 3 goals and 5 assists at the Allianz Arena, and Lennart Karl with 4 goals and 1 assist at the Allianz Arena are important players. For Atalanta, Charles De Ketelaere (2 season goals, 2 season assists), Mario Pašalić (3 season goals), and Nikola Krstović (1 season goal) are the players with the most direct goal contributions. Not fielded for Bayern are Michael Olise (3 goals, 5 assists) and Konrad Laimer (0 goals, 3 assists). For Atalanta, Gianluca Scamacca (3 goals, 0 assists) and Lazar Samardžić (3 goals, 0 assists) are missing.
Goalkeepers
For FC Bayern München, Jonas Urbig is in goal, and the team has kept 9 clean sheets this season. Atalanta is defended by Marco Carnesecchi, who has achieved 10 clean sheets with his team.
Influences
The Allianz Arena is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 4.2 goals per match. In 80% of the last 5 games at the stadium, both teams scored, and 80% ended with over 2.5 goals. FC Bayern München shows a strong offense at home with 3.47 goals scored and a solid defense with 0.87 goals conceded per home game.