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Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart - RB Leipzig

03/15/2026, 06:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
VfB Stuttgart
1.5
Total xG
2.8
RB Leipzig
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
VSRL

VfB Stuttgart

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.40
Maximilian Mittelstädt on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)

RB Leipzig

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.04
Xaver Schlager on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Brajan Gruda on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.66
+0.66
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

28%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Direct Duel for Champions League Spot: Stuttgart and Leipzig are tied on points, fighting for 4th place in the table
  • RB Leipzig's Strong Current Form: Leipzig won 3 of their last 5 games and is unbeaten in 5 matches
  • VfB Stuttgart's Offensive Home Power: VfB scores an average of 2.10 goals per home game, showing strong attacking capabilities
Risk Factors
  • VfB Stuttgart has had only 3 days of rest since their last match, indicating potential fatigue
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a close game with a home win probability of 39%, a draw of 29%, and an away win of 33%
Overview

VfB Stuttgart (4th place, 47 points) hosts RB Leipzig (5th place, 47 points) at the MHPArena. The Bundesliga match on March 15, 2026, 7:30 PM is a direct duel for 4th place in the league table. Both teams are level on points and are fighting for Champions League qualification.

Form

VfB Stuttgart's current form across all competitions is DLWDL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)

VfB Stuttgart's last performance ended in a loss (1-2 against Porto)

VfB Stuttgart's last five results are: Loss (1-2 against Porto), Draw (2-2 against FSV Mainz 05), Win (4-0 against VfL Wolfsburg), Loss (0-1 against Celtic), Draw (3-3 against Heidenheim)

RB Leipzig is in good form with WDDWW (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)

RB Leipzig's last match ended in a win (2-1 against FC Augsburg)

RB Leipzig has achieved two consecutive wins recently

RB Leipzig's last five results are: Win (2-1 against FC Augsburg), Win (2-1 against Hamburger SV), Draw (2-2 against Borussia Dortmund), Draw (2-2 against VfL Wolfsburg), Win (2-1 against FC Köln)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

VfB Stuttgart scored an average of 2.00 goals per game and conceded 1.36 goals per game this season

RB Leipzig scored an average of 1.92 goals per game and conceded 1.36 goals per game this season

Both teams kept 9 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 15 of their matches this season

Stuttgart had over 2.5 goals in 19 games, while Leipzig had over 2.5 goals in 17 games

In home games, VfB Stuttgart scored an average of 2.10 goals and conceded 1.20 goals

In away games, RB Leipzig scored an average of 1.90 goals and conceded 1.60 goals

The last 5 games at MHPArena saw an average of 2.6 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches at MHPArena

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 matches at MHPArena

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct head-to-head matches, VfB Stuttgart recorded 3 wins, and RB Leipzig recorded 2 wins, with 0 draws

VfB Stuttgart scored 12 goals and conceded 13 goals in these encounters

The last direct match on November 1, 2025, ended in a 3-1 victory for RB Leipzig

Recent results indicate a dominance of the home team in head-to-head matches

Key Players

For VfB Stuttgart, Deniz Undav (Attacker) is a key player with 15 season goals and 5 assists, and a season rating of 7.30

Ermedin Demirovic (Attacker) contributed 8 goals and 2 assists, with a season rating of 7.05, showing rising form

Bilal El Khannouss (Midfielder) scored 3 goals and 3 assists with a season rating of 7.21

For RB Leipzig, Christoph Baumgartner (Midfielder) is a crucial player with 10 season goals and 7 assists, and a season rating of 7.16, showing rising form

Yan Diomande (Attacker) has scored 10 goals and provided 5 assists, with a season rating of 7.36

Rômulo (Attacker) has 7 goals and 5 assists with a season rating of 7.07

Goalkeepers

VfB Stuttgart's goalkeeper, Alexander Nübel, has made 25 appearances, and the team has kept 9 clean sheets

Maarten Vandevoordt is RB Leipzig's goalkeeper, and the team has kept 9 clean sheets

Influences

The MHPArena, VfB Stuttgart's home stadium, saw an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart's home advantage is reflected in an average of 2.10 goals scored at home and 1.20 goals conceded at home per game

The pitch surface is grass

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