Champions League
Arsenal - Bayer 04 Leverkusen
03/17/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.8
0.9
1:1
12%2:0
11%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Arsenal
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
60%
Draw
25%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
40%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 60% probability for Arsenal
- Arsenal leads the league undefeated with 8 wins in 8 games
- Arsenal's home defense is extremely strong, conceding an average of 0.5 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Both teams had only 3 days rest since their last match
- Arsenal's goal production has recently declined (1.6 compared to 2.3 season average goals)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen's goal production has also declined (1.4 compared to 1.8 season average goals)
Overview
Arsenal (1st place, 24 points) host Bayer 04 Leverkusen (16th place, 12 points) at the Emirates Stadium
Champions League match on March 17, 2026, 9:00 PM
The Gunners enter this clash as clear favorites
Form
Arsenal shows strong form with "WWWDW" in their last five matches across all competitions
The team recorded 4 wins and 1 draw
Bayer 04 Leverkusen is unbeaten in their last five games with "DWDDD"
The Werkself secured 1 win and 4 draws
Arsenal's goal production is currently stagnating (1.6 goals per game) compared to their season average (2.3 goals per game)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen's goal production is also declining (1.4 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.8 goals per game)
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Arsenal scores an average of 1.97 goals and concedes 0.71 goals per game this season
The Gunners kept 15 clean sheets this season
In home games, Arsenal scores an average of 1.94 goals and concedes only 0.5 goals
Bayer 04 Leverkusen scores an average of 1.88 goals and concedes 1.27 goals per game this season
The Werkself kept 7 clean sheets this season
In away games, Bayer 04 Leverkusen scores an average of 1.92 goals and concedes 1.75 goals
An average of 3.4 goals per game were scored at the Emirates Stadium
Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In 3 direct encounters, there was 1 win for Arsenal and 2 draws
Arsenal scored a total of 6 goals, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 goals
The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw on March 11, 2026
Arsenal has been dominant at home in recent head-to-head matches
Key Players
Arsenal's Viktor Gyökeres (Attacker) scored 4 goals and provided 2 assists in 7 appearances this season
Leandro Trossard (Attacker) contributed 1 goal and 3 assists in 5 appearances
Bukayo Saka (Attacker) registered 2 goals and 2 assists in 7 appearances
Bayer 04 Leverkusen's Alejandro Grimaldo (Defender) was involved in 4 goals and 3 assists in 11 appearances
Aleix García (Midfielder) scored 2 goals in 11 appearances
Christian Kofane (Attacker) collected 1 goal and 1 assist in 10 appearances
Goalkeepers
Arsenal's goalkeeper David Raya made 8 appearances this season
Arsenal's team kept 15 clean sheets this season
Bayer 04 Leverkusen's goalkeeper Janis Blaswich played in 5 games
Bayer 04 Leverkusen's team kept 7 clean sheets this season
Influences
Arsenal has a clear home advantage, conceding an average of only 0.5 goals in home games
The Emirates Stadium sees an average of 3.4 goals per game
Both teams scored in 40% of games, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of games
The playing surface at the Emirates Stadium is grass