đŸ‡ȘđŸ‡ș

Champions League

FC Barcelona - Newcastle United

03/18/2026, 05:45 PM

7 : 2
Expected Goals
FC Barcelona
2.1
Total xG
3.5
Newcastle United
1.4
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

2:2

7%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
FBNU

FC Barcelona

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.72
Attack strength (1.83x league average)
+0.61
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.45
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.06
Ferran Torres on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

Newcastle United

Attack strength (2.03x league average)
+0.26
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap)
-0.11
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.04
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

23%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

32%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

68%

No

32%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: A home win for FC Barcelona is expected with 52% probability
  • Offensive strength: FC Barcelona scores consistently (Avg. 2.7 goals per game) unlike Newcastle United's struggling goal production (Avg. 1.4 goals)
  • Home advantage: FC Barcelona is strong offensively at home (Avg. 2.71 goals) and defensively stable (Avg. 0.47 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
  • FC Barcelona had only 3 days rest since their last match
  • Newcastle United has only 58% of their seasonal goal threat available
  • Newcastle United concedes an average of 1.9 away goals per game
Overview

FC Barcelona (5th place, 16 points) host Newcastle United (12th place, 14 points) at the Camp Nou. The Champions League match takes place on March 18, 2026, 6:45 PM. The Catalans aim to consolidate their position in the table.

Form

FC Barcelona shows strong form across all competitions with a 'WWWDW' record, corresponding to 4 wins and 1 draw. Their last game was a win.

Newcastle United's form is 'LWLDW', indicating 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last game also ended in a win.

FC Barcelona recently won 5-2 against Sevilla, while Newcastle United secured a 1-0 away victory against Chelsea.

Statistics

FC Barcelona shows a strong offense with an average of 2.75 goals per game, while Newcastle United averages 1.43 goals. Defensively, Barcelona is stable with 1 goal conceded per game, while Newcastle United concedes an average of 1.43 goals.

At home, Barcelona scores 2.71 goals and concedes only 0.47 goals per home game. Newcastle United scores 1.5 goals away and concedes an average of 1.9 goals.

The statistics at the Camp Nou show an average of 4.2 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 2 of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 5 of 5 matches.

Head-to-Head

In the 4 head-to-head encounters between the two teams, FC Barcelona secured 3 wins, while Newcastle United has no victories. There was 1 draw. The goal difference is 8:3 in favor of Barcelona.

The last meeting on March 10, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw.

Key Players

For FC Barcelona, Lamine Yamal (4 goals, 3 assists, average rating 7.77), FermĂ­n LĂłpez (5 goals, 3 assists, average rating 7.33), and Pedri (0 goals, 2 assists, average rating 7.25) are important players.

For Newcastle United, Anthony Gordon (10 goals, 2 assists, average rating 7.41), Harvey Barnes (6 goals, 3 assists, average rating 7.31), and Kieran Trippier (0 goals, 3 assists, average rating 7.22) stand out.

Goalkeepers

FC Barcelona's goalkeeper, Joan GarcĂ­a, has achieved 11 clean sheets this season. His team conceded an average of 0.47 goals at home.

Aaron Ramsdale, Newcastle United's goalkeeper, has recorded 8 clean sheets this season. His team conceded an average of 1.9 goals away.

Influences

The Camp Nou, FC Barcelona's home ground, is known for high-scoring games with an average of 4.2 goals per match. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 100% of the last 5 matches.

FC Barcelona shows strong attacking performance at home with an average of 2.71 goals and stable defense with only 0.47 goals conceded per game. Newcastle United, on the other hand, concedes an average of 1.9 goals away. No weather data is available.

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.