Champions League
Real Madrid - Manchester City
03/11/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.3
1.6
1:1
11%2:1
8%1:2
8%2:2
7%2:0
5%What influences the xG?
Real Madrid
Manchester City
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
26%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
64%
Under 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
42%
Under 3.5
58%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
67%
No
33%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: High probability for both teams to score (67% BTTS) and over 2.5 goals (64%)
- Manchester City's Form Advantage: The visitors show stronger form with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games
- Real Madrid's Home Advantage: The Bernabéu is a fortress with 2.07 home goals scored and only 0.64 goals conceded per game
Risk Factors
- Real Madrid's goal production has recently decreased according to Advanced Stats (1.2 compared to 2.2 season average)
- Manchester City's goal production has recently decreased according to Advanced Stats (2.0 compared to 2.3 season average)
Overview
Real Madrid host Manchester City at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu for a Champions League match on March 11, 2026, 8:00 PM
The two top teams are 9th (Real Madrid with 15 points) and 8th (Manchester City with 16 points) in the league table
This match is crucial for progression in the knockout phase of the competition
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Real Madrid's form in the last five games is WLWLW
The team achieved 3 wins and 2 losses
Manchester City's form in the last five matches is WWWDW
The Citizens recorded 4 wins and 1 draw
Real Madrid last won 2-1 away against Celta de Vigo
Manchester City last won 3-1 away against Newcastle United
Statistics
Real Madrid scores an average of 2.07 goals per game this season and concedes 0.85 goals
At home, Real Madrid averages 2.07 goals scored and 0.64 goals conceded
Manchester City scores an average of 2.03 goals per game this season and concedes 0.93 goals
Away from home, the Citizens average 2.09 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded
The Estadio Santiago Bernabéu has seen an average of 3.8 goals per game in 5 matches
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches at the Bernabéu
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches at the Bernabéu
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid secured 2 wins, Manchester City 1 win, and there were 2 draws
Real Madrid scored 11 goals, Manchester City scored 9 goals
The last encounter on December 10, 2025, ended in a 1-2 away win for Manchester City
Real Madrid dominated recent head-to-head clashes at home
Key Players
For Real Madrid, Vinicius Junior (3 goals, 4 assists, avg 7.27 rating), Federico Valverde (0 goals, 4 assists, avg 7.18 rating), and Arda GĂŒler (0 goals, 4 assists, avg 7.27 rating) are key
For Manchester City, Erling Haaland (7 goals, 0 assists, avg 7.31 rating), Jérémy Doku (1 goal, 3 assists, avg 7.24 rating), and Nico O'Reilly (1 goal, 2 assists, avg 7.17 rating) are important
Goalkeepers
Thibaut Courtois of Real Madrid has recorded 11 clean sheets this season
Gianluigi Donnarumma of Manchester City has achieved 12 clean sheets this season
Influences
Real Madrid's home advantage at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu is evident with 2.07 home goals scored and only 0.64 goals conceded per home game
Manchester City scores 2.09 goals away and concedes 1.45 goals per away game
The Santiago Bernabéu stadium is known for high-scoring games with an average of 3.8 goals per match
Both teams score in 80% of games at the Bernabéu