Bundesliga
St. Pauli - SC Freiburg
03/22/2026, 04:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.3
0.8
1:1
14%1:0
13%0:0
11%2:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
St. Pauli
SC Freiburg
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
53%
Draw
29%
Away Win
18%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
82%
Away or Draw
47%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Freiburg's extreme defensive vulnerability away from home with an average of 3.0 goals conceded
- Mathematical analysis predicts a home win for St. Pauli with 53% probability
- St. Pauli's solid home form with 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 3 home games
Risk Factors
- SC Freiburg with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- St. Pauli has few shots with an average of 2.2 shots on target
Overview
St. Pauli (16th place, 24 points) host SC Freiburg (8th place, 34 points) at the Millerntor-Stadion
Bundesliga match on March 22, 2026, 5:30 PM
St. Pauli are fighting against relegation, while Freiburg are competing for European qualification spots
Form
St. Pauli's current form across all competitions is LWWDL
This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
The last match resulted in a loss
SC Freiburg's current form across all competitions is LDLLW
This corresponds to 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
The last match resulted in a win
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
St. Pauli scores an average of 0.88 goals per game and concedes 1.62 goals
In home games, the average is 0.87 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded
SC Freiburg scores an average of 1.42 goals per game and concedes 1.65 goals
Away from home, Freiburg scores an average of 1.44 goals but concedes an average of 3.0 goals
Both teams have kept 5 clean sheets this season
At Millerntor-Stadion, an average of 1.6 goals are scored per game
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli recorded 2 wins and SC Freiburg also recorded 2 wins
One match ended in a draw
St. Pauli scored a total of 9 goals, while SC Freiburg scored 6 goals
The last encounter on November 9, 2025, saw SC Freiburg win away with a 2:1 scoreline
Key Players
For St. Pauli, key players include Danel Sinani (4 goals, 3 assists, 7.05 average rating), Eric Smith (2 goals, 2 assists, 6.90 average rating), and Joel Chima Fujita (1 goal, 3 assists, 6.83 average rating)
For SC Freiburg, Vincenzo Grifo (7 goals, 1 assist, 6.95 average rating), Matthias Ginter (2 goals, 3 assists, 6.95 average rating), and Igor Matanovic (6 goals, 1 assist, 6.78 average rating) are important players
Goalkeepers
Nikola Vasilj is the goalkeeper for St. Pauli and has recorded 5 clean sheets in 26 appearances
Noah Atubolu is in goal for SC Freiburg and also achieved 5 clean sheets in 26 appearances
Influences
St. Pauli shows solid performance at home with an average of 0.87 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded
SC Freiburg is very vulnerable defensively away from home, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per away game
The average at Millerntor-Stadion is 1.6 goals per game