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Champions League

Tottenham Hotspur - Atlético Madrid

03/18/2026, 08:00 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Tottenham Hotspur
1.9
Total xG
3.6
Atlético Madrid
1.7
Most Likely Scores

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

3:1

5%

3:2

4%
What influences the xG?
THAM

Tottenham Hotspur

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.25
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap)
+0.09
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07
Dominic Solanke not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
João Palhinha not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)

Atlético Madrid

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.50
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap)
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)
-0.02
Alexander Sørloth on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

24%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

48%

Under 3.5

52%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

70%

No

30%

Key Factors
  • Form contrast: Atlético Madrid is in top form with four wins from their last five games, while Tottenham is struggling with four losses and one draw
  • Home team's defensive weakness: Tottenham Hotspur recently conceded an average of 3.0 goals per game, significantly higher than their season average of 1.61 goals conceded
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates 1.88 expected home goals for Tottenham and 1.69 expected away goals for Atlético, with a 69% probability for over 2.5 goals
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue for Tottenham Hotspur: The home team had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Offensive issues for Tottenham Hotspur: Goal production is recently lower at 1.2 goals compared to the season average of 1.6 goals
  • Absence of key players for Tottenham: Dominic Solanke (3 Goals, 0 Assists) and João Palhinha (1 Goal, 1 Assist) are not nominated
Overview

Tottenham Hotspur (4th place, 17 points) host Atlético Madrid (14th place, 13 points) at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. This Champions League match takes place on March 18, 2026, 9:00 PM. Tottenham aims to recover from poor form, while Atlético builds on its current winning streak

Form

Tottenham Hotspur shows a negative trend with a form of LLLLD from the last five games (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses). Their last match ended in a 1-1 away draw against Liverpool. Prior to that, they suffered a clear 2-5 away loss against Atlético Madrid

Atlético Madrid, however, is in top form with WLWWW (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss) in their last five matches, including three consecutive wins. Their last game was a 1-0 home win against Getafe, followed by a convincing 5-2 home win against Tottenham Hotspur

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Tottenham Hotspur averages 1.29 home goals per game and concedes an average of 1.79 goals at home. Only 2 home games ended with a clean sheet

Atlético Madrid averages 1.62 away goals and concedes 1.62 goals per away game. They kept 5 clean sheets in away matches

Tottenham's goal production recently is lower at 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.6 goals. Atlético's goal production is consistent at about 2.0 goals per game

The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has seen an average of 3.6 goals per game. Both teams scored in 80% of matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of matches

Head-to-Head

There has been only one head-to-head match between these two teams. Atlético Madrid won this single encounter 5-2 on March 10, 2026. Atlético Madrid scored 5 goals, while Tottenham Hotspur recorded 2 goals. The last result indicates dominance by the away team (Atlético in this current match context)

Key Players

For Tottenham Hotspur, Randal Kolo Muani (3 goals, 2 assists), Pedro Porro (1 goal, 2 assists, average rating 7.31) and Xavi Simons (1 goal, 1 assist, average rating 7.1) are offensive mainstays

For Atlético Madrid, Julián Alvarez stands out with 7 goals and 3 assists. Antoine Griezmann contributed 2 goals and 4 assists. Marcos Llorente showed a strong performance with 4 goals and 1 assist as a defender

Goalkeepers

Guglielmo Vicario of Tottenham Hotspur made 9 season appearances and kept 7 clean sheets

For Atlético Madrid, Juan Musso played in one match. Overall, Atlético achieved 12 clean sheets

Influences

The match will take place at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on grass. The stadium profile shows an average of 3.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% of cases and over 2.5 goals scored in 80% of cases

Tottenham scores an average of 1.29 goals at home and concedes 1.79 goals, indicating a vulnerable home defense. Atlético Madrid shows a balanced record away from home with 1.62 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded

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