Champions League
Atalanta - FC Bayern München
03/10/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.7
2.1
1:2
9%2:2
7%2:1
7%1:3
6%2:3
5%What influences the xG?
Atalanta
FC Bayern München
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
23%
Away Win
46%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Under 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
72%
Under 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
51%
Under 3.5
49%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
54%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
72%
No
28%
Key Factors
- Offensive strength: Bayern München scores an average of 3.64 goals away and has 9.6 shots on target
- Current form: FC Bayern München is in top form with 5 consecutive wins
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis sees an away win with 46% probability and 2 expected away goals
Risk Factors
- Atalanta has only 3 days of rest since their last match
Overview
Atalanta (15th place, 13 points) host FC Bayern München (2nd place, 21 points) at Gewiss Stadium. Champions League match on March 10, 2026, 9:00 PM. Bayern aims to solidify their top position, while Atalanta enters as an underdog.
Form
Atalanta's form in their last five matches across all competitions is WWLDD, which corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their last two games ended in a draw. FC Bayern München is in top form with WWWWW in their last five matches across all competitions, reflecting 5 wins without any losses or draws. Bayern is on a 5-game winning streak.
Statistics
Atalanta scores an average of 1.41 goals per home game and concedes 0.76 goals. Over the entire season, their average goals are 1.39 and goals conceded average is 0.93. Both teams scored in 15 seasonal matches, while 11 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. FC Bayern München scores an average of 3.64 goals per away game and concedes 1.0 goals. Their season average stands at 3.68 goals per game and 0.96 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 16 seasonal matches, and 25 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. The Gewiss Stadium sees an average of 3.6 goals per game. In 4 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and all 5 matches had over 2.5 goals. Atalanta is currently scoring more frequently (2.2) than their season average (1.6). FC Bayern München consistently scores (~3.5 goals per game).
Key Players
For Atalanta, Gianluca Scamacca (3 goals), Mario Pašalić (2 goals), and Nikola Krstović (1 goal) are the most prolific scorers this season. Gianluca Scamacca has scored 7 goals and provided 2 assists in 20 games at Gewiss Stadium. Mario Pašalić has 4 goals and 4 assists in 22 home games. For FC Bayern München, Luis Díaz (3 goals, 1 assist), Michael Olise (1 goal, 4 assists), and Serge Gnabry (1 goal, 3 assists) stand out. Luis Díaz shows a rising form with 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 2 games. Michael Olise contributed 2 assists in his last 2 games, but his form is declining. Serge Gnabry has not scored or assisted in his last 2 games, and his form is also declining.
Goalkeepers
Atalanta's goalkeeper, Marco Carnesecchi, has an average rating of 7.09 in 9 appearances this season. The team recorded 10 clean sheets. For FC Bayern München, Jonas Urbig achieved an average rating of 7.76 in 1 appearance. The team has managed a total of 9 clean sheets.
Influences
The Gewiss Stadium is known for a high goal rate with an average of 3.6 goals per game. In 4 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and all 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. Atalanta has scored 24 goals and conceded 13 goals at home this season. FC Bayern München has scored 40 goals and conceded 11 goals away from home. The home team is possession-dominant with 59% possession and 6.0 shots on target. The away team is also possession-dominant with 62% possession and 9.6 shots on target.