Champions League
Atlético Madrid - Tottenham Hotspur
03/10/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.2
1.5
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Atlético Madrid
Tottenham Hotspur
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
26%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
63%
Under 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
41%
Under 3.5
59%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
66%
No
34%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates the highest probability for a home win at 41%
- Form Trend: Atlético Madrid shows a positive trend (2.4 goals currently vs 2.0 season average), while Tottenham displays a negative trend (0.8 goals currently vs 1.6 season average)
- Home Strength: Atlético Madrid is defensively stable and offensively strong at home, with an average of 1.74 goals scored and only 0.63 goals conceded per home game
Risk Factors
- Tight Schedule: Atlético Madrid had only 3 days rest since their last match
- High Goal Potential: The Riyadh Air Metropolitano averages 4.2 goals per game, which could lead to an open, high-scoring affair
- Low Shot Accuracy: Tottenham Hotspur averages only 2.6 shots on target per game
Overview
Atlético Madrid (14th place, 13 points) host Tottenham Hotspur (4th place, 17 points) at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Champions League match on March 10, 2026, 9:00 PM. The home side aims to catch up in the competition, while the visitors look to maintain their strong position
Form
Atlético Madrid shows a form of WWWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five matches
This includes 4 wins and 1 loss
According to analysis, Atlético Madrid is currently scoring more frequently (2.4) than their season average (2.0), indicating a positive trend
Atlético Madrid's last five results are: 3-2 win against Real Sociedad, 0-3 loss against FC Barcelona, 1-0 win against Real Oviedo, 4-1 win against Club Brugge, 4-2 win against Espanyol
Tottenham Hotspur has a form of LLLLL in their last five matches
This means 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses
Tottenham Hotspur's goal production is stagnant (0.8), with a season average of 1.6, representing a negative trend
Tottenham Hotspur's last five results are: 1-3 loss against Crystal Palace, 1-2 loss against Fulham, 1-4 loss against Arsenal, 1-2 loss against Newcastle United, 0-2 loss against Manchester United
Statistics
Atlético Madrid scores an average of 1.7 goals per game and concedes 0.93 goals per game this season
At home, Atlético Madrid averages 1.74 goals scored and 0.63 goals conceded
The team kept 11 clean sheets
Tottenham Hotspur scores an average of 1.34 goals per game and concedes 1.59 goals per game
Away from home, Tottenham Hotspur averages 1.31 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded
The team managed 7 clean sheets
The Riyadh Air Metropolitano has seen an average of 4.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches
In this stadium, 3 out of 5 matches ended with both teams scoring (60%)
4 out of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals (80%)
Head-to-Head
The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head meetings between these teams
Key Players
For Atlético Madrid, Julián Alvarez with 5 goals and 2 assists, and Marcos Llorente with 3 goals, are important offensive players
Antoine Griezmann has 1 goal and 2 assists with a rising form trend
For Tottenham Hotspur, Randal Kolo Muani is a key player with 3 goals and 2 assists
Cristian Romero has scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists this season, also showing 2 goals and 1 assist in the last five games
Micky van de Ven contributed 2 goals
Goalkeepers
Jan Oblak is the goalkeeper for Atlético Madrid, his team kept 11 clean sheets this season
For Tottenham Hotspur, Antonín Kinský is in goal, while the team recorded 7 clean sheets overall
Influences
Atlético Madrid shows strong home performance with an average of 1.74 goals scored and only 0.63 goals conceded per home game
The Riyadh Air Metropolitano is a high-scoring venue, with an average of 4.2 goals per game in the last five matches
The playing surface is grass