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Europa League

Bologna - Roma

03/12/2026, 05:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Bologna
1.3
Total xG
2.5
Roma
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
BOLROM

Bologna

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.35
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.32
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.14
Riccardo Orsolini on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Jens Odgaard on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Nadir Zortea on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Roma

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.38
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.25
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.23
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.23
MatĂ­as SoulĂŠ not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Lorenzo Pellegrini on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 66% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

30%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: A home win for Bologna is rated as most likely with 39%
  • Form advantage: Bologna showed stronger current form with 4 wins in 5 games compared to Roma
  • Roma's offensive strength: According to advanced statistics, Roma is currently scoring more frequently (2.2 goals) than their season average (1.4 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Roma: Limited squad strength with only 66% of usual starting XI goal threat, as MatĂ­as SoulĂŠ and Lorenzo Pellegrini are missing
  • Bologna: Goal production is stagnant according to advanced statistics (1.0 goals in recent form, season average 1.5 goals)
  • Both teams with only 4 days rest since their last match
Overview

Bologna (10th place, 15 points) host Roma (8th place, 16 points) at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Europa League match on March 12, 2026, 6:45 PM. Both teams are close in the Europa League table.

Form

Bologna has shown a form of WWWWL in their last five games, representing 4 wins and 1 loss. Their last match was a 1-2 loss against Hellas Verona. Prior to that, they secured four 1-0 victories against Pisa, Brann (home), Udinese, and Brann (away). W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Roma's form in the last five games is WDWDL, which is 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. They lost their last game 1-2 against Genoa, following a 3-3 draw against Juventus and a 3-0 win against Cremonese.

Statistics

Bologna averages 1.32 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.27 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded per home game. Bologna has kept 8 clean sheets in total, with 5 of them at home.

Roma averages 1.36 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded per away game. Roma has achieved 12 clean sheets this season, 5 of which were away. Bologna's matches at this venue have seen an average of 1.6 total goals per game. Both teams scored in 40% of games, and 20% had over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Bologna secured 3 wins, Roma won 1, and there was 1 draw. Bologna scored 10 goals, while Roma scored 6. The last encounter was a 0-1 victory for Roma on August 23, 2025. Bologna has been the more dominant team in recent direct clashes.

Key Players

For Bologna, Federico Bernardeschi is an important attacker with 3 season goals and an average rating of 7.14, showing stable form. Santiago Castro has scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist this season, with rising form. João Mårio also provides key impulses with 1 season goal and an average rating of 9.1. Other players in the starting eleven include Jonathan Rowe, Tommaso Pobega, Lewis Ferguson, Juan Miranda, Jhon Lucumí, Remo Freuler, and Nicolò Casale.

For Roma, Niccolò Pisilli is a stable midfielder with 2 season goals and an average rating of 7.18. Donyell Malen has scored 2 goals in his last 5 games and has an average rating of 8.29. Zeki Çelik contributed 2 season assists and shows rising form. Other players in the starting eleven include Bryan Zaragoza, Neil El Aynaoui, Daniele Ghilardi, Wesley, Devyne Rensch, Bryan Cristante, and Evan Ndicka.

Goalkeepers

Lukasz Skorupski is Bologna's goalkeeper, with an average rating of 7.12 over 8 appearances this season and 8 clean sheets, 5 of which were at home. For Roma, Mile Svilar is in goal, with an average rating of 6.93 over 7 season appearances and 12 clean sheets, 5 of which were away.

Influences

The Stadio Renato Dall'Ara has an average of 1.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and only 1 out of 5 games finished with over 2.5 goals. Bologna's home offense averages 1.27 goals, while their defense concedes 1.45 goals. Roma's away defense concedes an average of 1.00 goal per game.

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