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Europa League

VfB Stuttgart - Porto

03/12/2026, 05:45 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
VfB Stuttgart
1.4
Total xG
2.9
Porto
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
VSPOR

VfB Stuttgart

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average)
+0.17
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.16
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap)
-0.09
Attack strength (1.44x league average)
-0.06
Maximilian Mittelstädt on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Porto

Defensive strength (0.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.66
Attack strength (1.69x league average)
+0.38
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.10
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Pepê on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Gabri Veiga on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Deniz Gül on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

28%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Analysis: The model predicts a very tight match, with Porto having a slightly higher win probability (37%) than Stuttgart (36%), and a high draw probability (28%)
  • Defensive Solidity vs. Offensive Power: Porto boasts an exceptionally strong defense (0.4 goals conceded per game, 17 clean sheets), while Stuttgart has a potent home offense (2.1 goals per home game)
  • Recent Form Contrast: Stuttgart's recent form shows an increased scoring rate (2.6 goals vs. 2.0 season average), while Porto's goal production has slowed (1.6 goals vs. 1.9 season average)
Risk Factors
  • Stuttgart's Home Defensive Vulnerability: Despite a strong home offense, Stuttgart concedes an average of 1.20 goals per home game, which could be exploited by Porto's attack
  • High Probability for Both Teams to Score: The model predicts a 60% chance for both teams to score, suggesting a potentially open game where defensive lapses could be costly for either side
  • Porto's Declining Goal Production: According to advanced stats, Porto's recent goal production has slowed to 1.6 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.9 goals, which could pose a risk to their scoring ability
Overview

VfB Stuttgart hosts FC Porto at the MHPArena for a Europa League match on March 12, 2026, 6:45 PM

Stuttgart is in 11th place with 15 points

Porto is in 5th place with 17 points

The mathematical analysis predicts a very tight game, with Porto having a slightly higher win probability of 37% compared to Stuttgart's 36%

A draw is calculated with a 28% probability

Predicted goals are 1.44 for Stuttgart and 1.47 for Porto

Form

VfB Stuttgart's last five games show a form of WDLWD

This equates to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

The last match ended in a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

FC Porto's last five games show a form of DWWWD

This equates to 3 wins and 2 draws

The last match ended in a draw

Statistics

VfB Stuttgart averages 2.00 goals scored per game and concedes 1.36 goals per game

At home, Stuttgart averages 2.10 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded

Stuttgart kept 9 clean sheets this season

FC Porto averages 1.96 goals scored per game and concedes only 0.40 goals per game

Away from home, Porto averages 1.92 goals scored and 0.46 goals conceded

Porto achieved an impressive 17 clean sheets this season

The MHPArena venue has seen an average of 3.0 total goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games

Key Players

For VfB Stuttgart, Deniz Undav is an important attacker with 2 season goals and 6 assists, holding an average rating of 7.37

Midfielder Bilal El Khannouss has scored 5 season goals with a rating of 7.26

Jamie Leweling, also an attacker, contributed 3 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.00

Not nominated: Maximilian Mittelstädt (1 Goal/1 Assist)

For FC Porto, Rodrigo Mora is a relevant midfielder with 2 season goals and 1 assist, holding an average rating of 7.15

Defender Jan Bednarek has a rating of 6.92 and scored 1 goal in his last 5 games

Borja Sainz in attack has 1 season goal and 1 assist with a rating of 6.88

Not nominated: Pepê (0 Goals/3 Assists), Gabri Veiga (2 Goals/0 Assists), Deniz Gül (1 Goal/1 Assist)

Goalkeepers

VfB Stuttgart's goalkeeper, Alexander Nübel, has a season average rating of 6.85

Stuttgart has achieved 9 clean sheets this season

FC Porto's goalkeeper, Diogo Costa, has a rating of 6.63

Porto has recorded an impressive 17 clean sheets this season

Influences

VfB Stuttgart shows a strong offense at home, averaging 2.10 home goals

Their defense concedes an average of 1.20 home goals

The MHPArena has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 40% of games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60%

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