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Europa League

Porto - VfB Stuttgart

03/19/2026, 08:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Porto
1.9
Total xG
3.0
VfB Stuttgart
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PORVS

Porto

Defensive strength (0.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.94
Attack strength (1.3x league average)
+0.79
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.46
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.07
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap)
+0.05
PepĂȘ on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Gabri Veiga on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Deniz GĂŒl on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

VfB Stuttgart

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
Attack strength (1.94x league average)
-0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap)
-0.07
Jamie Leweling not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

25%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Porto's home strength: The team scores 2.08 goals and concedes only 0.31 goals per game at home
  • Superior form: Porto is unbeaten in five games (WWDWW), while Stuttgart shows a mixed record (LWDLW)
  • Pipeline forecast: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Porto with 53% probability and 1.85 expected home goals
Risk Factors
  • Stuttgart's declining goal production: Current form shows 1.6 goals per game, season average is 2.0 goals
  • Limited data availability for duel statistics in the last 5 matches
Overview

Porto (5th place, 17 points) host VfB Stuttgart (11th place, 15 points) at the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo. This Europa League match takes place on March 19, 2026, 8:00 PM. Porto aims to confirm its strong season performance on the European stage

Form

Porto's current form (all competitions): WWDWW (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). Stuttgart's form in the last five matches is LWDLW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss. Porto won their last home game against Moreirense 3-0. Stuttgart defeated RB Leipzig 1-0 at home in their last match. The direct encounter on March 12, 2026, saw Porto win 2-1 away

Statistics

Porto averages 2.00 goals scored and concedes only 0.38 goals per game this season. At home, they score 2.08 goals and concede 0.31 goals. Stuttgart averages 1.96 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Stuttgart scores 1.93 goals and concedes 1.47 goals. The EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo sees an average of 2.80 goals per game. Both teams scored in 60% of matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of matches

Head-to-Head

In one previous head-to-head match, Porto secured a win. Stuttgart has not yet won in this comparison. Porto scored 2 goals, Stuttgart 1 goal. The last encounter on March 12, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Porto

Key Players

For Porto, Terem Moffi (1 goal, 7.30 rating), Rodrigo Mora (3 goals, 1 assist, 7.25 rating), and Borja Sainz (1 goal, 2 assists, 6.88 rating) could be crucial. On VfB Stuttgart's side, Deniz Undav (3 goals, 6 assists, 7.29 rating), Maximilian MittelstÀdt (1 goal, 1 assist, 7.29 rating), and Bilal El Khannouss (5 goals, 1 assist, 7.12 rating) are key players

Goalkeepers

Diogo Costa, Porto's goalkeeper, has achieved 18 clean sheets this season, with 9 of them in home games. Alexander NĂŒbel, VfB Stuttgart's goalkeeper, has recorded a total of 10 clean sheets, 3 of which were in away games

Influences

Porto demonstrates strong home performance, averaging 2.08 goals scored and conceding only 0.31 goals. The EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo typically features high-scoring matches, with an average of 2.80 goals per game

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