Europa League
Roma - Bologna
03/19/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.5
1.3
1:1
14%1:2
8%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Roma
Bologna
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
33%
Draw
30%
Away Win
37%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
63%
Away or Draw
67%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis gives Bologna a 37% chance of an away win
- Form Advantage: Bologna shows better form with 3 wins and 1 draw compared to Roma (1 win, 2 draws)
- Head-to-Head: Bologna has been more dominant in recent direct encounters
Risk Factors
- Roma's Increased Goals Conceded: Roma's recent average goals conceded (1.6) are higher than their season average (0.85)
- Bologna's Stagnating Goal Production: Bologna's recent goal production (1.0) is lower than their season average (1.5)
- Low Shots on Target: Both teams show a low average of shots on target (Roma 2.8, Bologna 3.0)
Overview
Roma (8th place, 16 points) host Bologna (10th place, 15 points) at the Stadio Olimpico. Europa League match on March 19, 2026, 9:00 PM. Both teams are in the upper half of the table, vying for a better position.
Form
Roma shows mixed form in their last five matches with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses (Form: WDLDL). Their last outing resulted in a loss (L). Bologna, on the other hand, exhibits better form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games (Form: WWLDW). Their last game ended in a win (W). Roma currently scores more often (1.8) than their season average (1.4). Bologna's goal production is stagnating (1.0), with a season average of 1.5.
Statistics
Roma scores an average of 1.34 goals per season and concedes 0.79 goals. At home, they average 1.38 goals scored and 0.56 goals conceded per game. Bologna scores 1.31 goals and concedes 1.17 goals per game. Away from home, Bologna averages 1.33 goals scored and concedes 1.0 goals. Roma kept 12 clean sheets this season, while Bologna recorded 9. The Stadio Olimpico has seen an average of 3.4 goals in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and 4 of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Roma secured 1 win, Bologna 2 wins, and there were 2 draws. The goal difference in these fixtures is 7:9 in favor of Bologna. The last encounter on March 12, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw. Bologna has been more dominant in recent direct duels.
Key Players
For Roma, Niccolò Pisilli with 2 goals, Stephan El Shaarawy with 1 goal, and Evan Ndicka with 1 goal are important players. For Bologna, Federico Bernardeschi with 4 goals, Jonathan Rowe with 2 goals and 1 assist, and Santiago Castro with 1 goal and 1 assist are key figures. Niccolò Pisilli has an average season rating of 7.13.
Goalkeepers
Roma's goalkeeper Mile Svilar has an average season rating of 6.97. Bologna starts with Federico Ravaglia in goal, whose season rating is 6.65. Roma kept 12 clean sheets this season, while Bologna recorded 9 clean sheets.
Influences
Roma shows strong defensive performance at home with an average of 0.56 goals conceded. Bologna concedes an average of 1.0 goals away from home. The Stadio Olimpico averages 3.4 goals per game. Additionally, over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 matches, and both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches.