Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV
03/21/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.7
0.9
1:1
12%2:0
11%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Borussia Dortmund
Hamburger SV
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
58%
Draw
25%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
42%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Favorite role: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 58% for Borussia Dortmund
- Home strength vs. Away weakness: Dortmund's strong home offense (2.14 goals) meets Hamburg's vulnerable away defense (2.5 goals conceded)
- Historical dominance: Borussia Dortmund has won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Hamburger SV
Risk Factors
- HSV's away weakness: Hamburger SV concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game
- Dortmund's form trend: BVB's goal production is currently stagnating (1.6 goals) compared to their season average (2.1 goals)
- Dortmund injuries: Serhou Guirassy, Julian Brandt, and Ramy Bensebaini are unavailable for BVB
Overview
Borussia Dortmund (2nd place, 58 points) hosts Hamburger SV (11th place, 30 points) at Signal Iduna Park
Bundesliga match on March 21, 2026, 6:30 PM
The hosts aim to solidify their position in the top group
Form
Borussia Dortmund's form across all competitions: DLLWW
This equates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses from the last 5 games
Hamburger SV shows the following form in their last 5 games: DLLWD
This consists of 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Dortmund's last result was a win, their second in a row
HSV recently achieved a draw after a win
Statistics
Borussia Dortmund scores an average of 2.12 goals per game and concedes 1.0 goal
At home, they score 2.14 goals and concede only 0.79 goals per home game
Hamburger SV averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded per game
Away from home, HSV concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game and scores 1.12 goals
Dortmund kept a clean sheet in 12 season games, HSV in 6 games
For Dortmund, over 2.5 goals were scored in 15 games, for HSV in 13 games
Signal Iduna Park has seen an average of 3.6 goals per match in the last 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia Dortmund dominated with 4 wins
There was 1 draw and no wins for Hamburger SV
The goal difference of 14:3 clearly favors Dortmund
The last encounter on November 8, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw
Historically, the home team has a dominant record in this fixture
Key Players
For Borussia Dortmund, Julian Ryerson (12 assists), Maximilian Beier (8 goals, 4 assists), and Karim Adeyemi (6 goals, 3 assists) are decisive players
On Hamburger SV's side, Fábio Vieira (5 goals, 4 assists), Ransford Königsdörffer (4 goals, 2 assists), and Luka Vuskovic (5 goals) are important players
Nico Schlotterbeck has a season average rating of 7.4
Luka Vuskovic has a season average rating of 7.22
Not nominated for Dortmund: Serhou Guirassy (12G/2A), Julian Brandt (6G/3A), Ramy Bensebaini (2G/0A)
Goalkeepers
Borussia Dortmund's goalkeeper Gregor Kobel played in 26 season games and kept 12 clean sheets
Daniel Heuer Fernandes, Hamburger SV's goalkeeper, played 26 season games and achieved 6 clean sheets
Influences
Borussia Dortmund's home record is strong with an average of 2.14 goals scored and 0.79 goals conceded
Signal Iduna Park proves to be a high-scoring venue with an average of 3.6 goals per game
In 2 out of 5 games, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 games, more than 2.5 goals were scored