Bundesliga
RB Leipzig - TSG Hoffenheim
03/20/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.2
4.0
1.8
2:1
8%2:2
7%1:2
6%3:1
6%3:2
5%What influences the xG?
RB Leipzig
TSG Hoffenheim
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
22%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
92%
Under 1.5
8%
Over 2.5
76%
Under 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
56%
Under 3.5
44%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
75%
No
25%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: RB Leipzig has the highest win probability at 48%
- Offensive strength of both teams: A high probability of 75% for 'Both Teams to Score' and 76% for 'Over 2.5 goals'
- RB Leipzig's home strength: An average of 1.81 home goals scored per game
Risk Factors
- RB Leipzig's goal production: Recent negative trend with 1.6 goals compared to the season average of 1.9
- TSG Hoffenheim's offense: The visitors are offensively strong with an average of 2.08 goals per game
- Even H2H record: 5 direct encounters resulted in 2 wins for each team and one draw
Overview
RB Leipzig (5th place, 47 points) host TSG Hoffenheim (3rd place, 50 points) at the Red Bull Arena. The Bundesliga match takes place on March 20, 2026, 8:30 PM. Both teams are fighting for European qualification spots, with Hoffenheim three points ahead of Leipzig.
Form
RB Leipzig's form across all competitions: DDWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
In their last five matches, Leipzig recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with the last game being a defeat.
TSG Hoffenheim's form across all competitions: WDLWD
The visitors achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches, the last game ended in a draw.
Statistics
RB Leipzig scores an average of 1.85 goals per game and concedes 1.35 goals. At home, they average 1.81 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 15 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 17 matches.
TSG Hoffenheim scores an average of 2.08 goals per game and concedes 1.31 goals. Away, they average 2.00 goals scored and concede 1.46 goals. In 17 matches, both teams scored, and 17 matches also ended with over 2.5 goals.
The Red Bull Arena sees an average of 2.6 goals per game. Both teams scored in 60% of the matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of the matches.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, the record between RB Leipzig and TSG Hoffenheim is even, with 2 wins for each team and 1 draw. RB Leipzig scored a total of 11 goals, while Hoffenheim netted 10. The last encounter on November 8, 2025, was won by Hoffenheim at home with a score of 3:1.
Key Players
Key players for RB Leipzig include Christoph Baumgartner with 10 goals and 7 assists, and Yan Diomande with 10 goals and 5 assists. Rômulo contributed 7 goals and 5 assists. David Raum showed an average rating of 7.85 in his last game and has 3 goals and 5 assists this season.
For TSG Hoffenheim, Fisnik Asllani is a key player with 8 goals and 6 assists. Wouter Burger recorded 4 goals and 6 assists, while Grischa Prömel scored 7 goals and 2 assists. Vladimír Coufal impressed in his last appearance with 2 assists and a rating of 8.82.
Goalkeepers
For RB Leipzig, Maarten Vandevoordt is in goal. His team recorded 9 clean sheets this season.
TSG Hoffenheim's goal is guarded by Oliver Baumann. The visitors kept 6 clean sheets this season.
Influences
RB Leipzig scores an average of 1.81 goals at home and concedes 1.12 goals, indicating an offensive home advantage. TSG Hoffenheim is also strong offensively away from home with 2.00 goals scored and 1.46 goals conceded.
The Red Bull Arena is known for high-scoring games, averaging 2.6 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of games, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 60% of games.