Champions League
Sporting CP - Arsenal
04/07/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.9
1.3
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Sporting CP
Arsenal
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
28%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Sporting CP shows a positive offensive form trend, currently scoring more frequently (3.0) than their season average (2.5)
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 41% for Sporting CP
- Sporting CP possesses an impressive home offense with an average of 2.67 goals scored per game
Risk Factors
- Arsenal had only 3 days of rest since their last match, indicating short recovery time
- Arsenal's goal production has stalled recently (1.6 goals), compared to their season average of 2.3 goals
- Estádio José Alvalade saw over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 matches, averaging 3.6 goals per game
Overview
Sporting CP host Arsenal at Estádio José Alvalade for a Champions League match on April 7, 2026, 9:00 PM. Sporting CP are in 7th place with 16 points, while Arsenal lead the table in 1st place with 24 points. Arsenal aim to continue their perfect run, while Sporting CP look to close the gap to the top spots.
Form
Sporting CP's form is D L W W W across all competitions. This means 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, with the last result being a win. Sporting CP has a streak of 3 consecutive wins at the end of their form. Arsenal's form is W D W W L across all competitions. This means 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, with the last result being a loss. Arsenal has a streak of 1 loss at the end of their form.
Statistics
Sporting CP shows a strong offense with an average of 2.67 goals per game this season and a home offense of 2.67 goals per game. The defense is also very solid with an average of 0.63 goals conceded per game and 0.4 goals conceded per home game. Arsenal scores an average of 1.97 goals per game and concedes 0.71 goals per game. Away from home, Arsenal averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded per game. Sporting CP has kept 13 clean sheets, and Arsenal has kept 15 clean sheets this season. Estádio José Alvalade averages 3.6 total goals per game, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 matches. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches at this stadium.
Head-to-Head
In previous head-to-head matches, there has been 1 encounter. Arsenal secured 1 win, while Sporting CP had 0 wins and there were 0 draws. Sporting CP scored 1 goal, and Arsenal scored 5 goals. The last match on November 26, 2024, ended in a 1:5 victory for Arsenal, highlighting Arsenal's current dominance in this fixture.
Key Players
For Sporting CP, Luis Suárez (5 goals, 2 assists) and Francisco Trincão (4 goals, 3 assists) are key offensive players. Pedro Gonçalves has scored 4 goals in the last 3 games and shows a rising form. Absences for Arsenal: Not nominated are Gabriel Martinelli (6G/1A), Bukayo Saka (2G/2A), Kai Havertz (2G/1A), and Eberechi Eze (1G/1A). For Arsenal, Declan Rice (1 goal, 2 assists) is a key midfielder and shows stable form.
Goalkeepers
Sporting CP's goalkeeper, Rui Silva, has an average rating of 6.96 in 9 season appearances. Sporting CP has achieved 13 clean sheets this season. Arsenal's goalkeeper, David Raya, has an average rating of 7.08 in 9 season appearances. Arsenal has achieved 15 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Sporting CP benefits from a strong home advantage, with an average of 2.67 goals scored and only 0.4 goals conceded per home game. Estádio José Alvalade is a high-scoring venue with an average of 3.6 total goals per game. 80% of matches at this stadium ended with over 2.5 goals.