🇪🇺

Champions League

Atlético de Madrid - FC Barcelona

04/14/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Atlético de Madrid
1.6
Total xG
3.2
FC Barcelona
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
ADMFB

Atlético de Madrid

Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap)
-0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1.6 vs 2 season average)
-0.13
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.04
Dávid Hancko not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)

FC Barcelona

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.16
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.05
Robert Lewandowski on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

26%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

66%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • FC Barcelona's consistent offense with an average of 2.7 goals per game and 8.4 shots on target
  • Atlético Madrid's negative form with 4 losses in their last 5 games and stagnant goal production
  • The Riyadh Air Metropolitano features a high average of 3.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% of matches
Risk Factors
  • Both teams have had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • The mathematical model predicts an extremely tight game with only a 2% difference in win probabilities between the home and away teams
  • Atlético Madrid's average goals conceded in recent games is 2.0, significantly higher than the season average of 1.27
Overview

Atlético Madrid (14th place, 13 points) host FC Barcelona (5th place, 16 points) at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Champions League match on April 14, 2026, 9:00 PM

Both teams aim to improve their table position

Form

Atlético Madrid's form in the last five games is LLLWL

This corresponds to 1 win and 4 losses

The last game ended in a loss

FC Barcelona shows WWWLW form in their last five matches

This corresponds to 4 wins and 1 loss

The last game was won

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Atlético Madrid scored an average of 1.65 goals and conceded an average of 1.03 goals per game this season

At home, they score 1.67 goals and concede 0.67 goals on average

FC Barcelona is offensively stronger with an average of 2.71 goals scored and 0.97 goals conceded per game

Away, they score 2.75 goals and concede 1.75 goals on average

The Riyadh Air Metropolitano has seen an average of 3.6 goals in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Madrid won 2 and FC Barcelona won 3

There were no draws

The goal difference is 8:8

The last encounter on April 8, 2026, saw Atlético Madrid win away 2:0 against FC Barcelona

Key Players

For Atlético Madrid, Julián Alvarez with 9 season goals and 4 assists, Marcos Llorente (4 goals, 1 assist) and Antoine Griezmann (2 goals, 3 assists) are key offensive players

Julián Alvarez and Antoine Griezmann show a declining form trend

Marcos Llorente has stable form

Not nominated: Dávid Hancko (2G/1A)

For FC Barcelona, Fermín López (6 goals, 4 assists), Lamine Yamal (5 goals, 4 assists) and Ferran Torres are noteworthy

Ferran Torres shows a rising form trend with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Fermín López and Lamine Yamal show a declining form trend

Not nominated: Robert Lewandowski (4G/0A)

Goalkeepers

Juan Musso for Atlético Madrid played 3 season games and has an average rating of 7.63

Atlético Madrid recorded 12 clean sheets

Joan García for FC Barcelona played 8 season games in goal and has an average rating of 6.57

FC Barcelona also achieved 12 clean sheets

Influences

Atlético Madrid has scored an average of 1.67 goals at home and conceded 0.67 goals

FC Barcelona scored an average of 2.75 goals away and conceded 1.75 goals

The Riyadh Air Metropolitano has an average of 3.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of matches and 60% of matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.