Champions League
Atlético de Madrid - FC Barcelona
04/14/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.2
1.6
1:1
12%2:1
8%1:2
8%2:2
7%2:0
5%What influences the xG?
Atlético de Madrid
FC Barcelona
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
38%
Draw
26%
Away Win
36%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
63%
Under 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
41%
Under 3.5
59%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
64%
Away or Draw
62%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
66%
No
34%
Key Factors
- FC Barcelona's consistent offense with an average of 2.7 goals per game and 8.4 shots on target
- Atlético Madrid's negative form with 4 losses in their last 5 games and stagnant goal production
- The Riyadh Air Metropolitano features a high average of 3.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% of matches
Risk Factors
- Both teams have had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- The mathematical model predicts an extremely tight game with only a 2% difference in win probabilities between the home and away teams
- Atlético Madrid's average goals conceded in recent games is 2.0, significantly higher than the season average of 1.27
Overview
Atlético Madrid (14th place, 13 points) host FC Barcelona (5th place, 16 points) at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Champions League match on April 14, 2026, 9:00 PM
Both teams aim to improve their table position
Form
Atlético Madrid's form in the last five games is LLLWL
This corresponds to 1 win and 4 losses
The last game ended in a loss
FC Barcelona shows WWWLW form in their last five matches
This corresponds to 4 wins and 1 loss
The last game was won
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Atlético Madrid scored an average of 1.65 goals and conceded an average of 1.03 goals per game this season
At home, they score 1.67 goals and concede 0.67 goals on average
FC Barcelona is offensively stronger with an average of 2.71 goals scored and 0.97 goals conceded per game
Away, they score 2.75 goals and concede 1.75 goals on average
The Riyadh Air Metropolitano has seen an average of 3.6 goals in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Madrid won 2 and FC Barcelona won 3
There were no draws
The goal difference is 8:8
The last encounter on April 8, 2026, saw Atlético Madrid win away 2:0 against FC Barcelona
Key Players
For Atlético Madrid, Julián Alvarez with 9 season goals and 4 assists, Marcos Llorente (4 goals, 1 assist) and Antoine Griezmann (2 goals, 3 assists) are key offensive players
Julián Alvarez and Antoine Griezmann show a declining form trend
Marcos Llorente has stable form
Not nominated: Dávid Hancko (2G/1A)
For FC Barcelona, Fermín López (6 goals, 4 assists), Lamine Yamal (5 goals, 4 assists) and Ferran Torres are noteworthy
Ferran Torres shows a rising form trend with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games
Fermín López and Lamine Yamal show a declining form trend
Not nominated: Robert Lewandowski (4G/0A)
Goalkeepers
Juan Musso for Atlético Madrid played 3 season games and has an average rating of 7.63
Atlético Madrid recorded 12 clean sheets
Joan García for FC Barcelona played 8 season games in goal and has an average rating of 6.57
FC Barcelona also achieved 12 clean sheets
Influences
Atlético Madrid has scored an average of 1.67 goals at home and conceded 0.67 goals
FC Barcelona scored an average of 2.75 goals away and conceded 1.75 goals
The Riyadh Air Metropolitano has an average of 3.6 goals per game
Both teams scored in 80% of matches and 60% of matches ended with over 2.5 goals