Champions League
FC Barcelona - Atlético de Madrid
04/08/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.4
3.6
1.2
2:1
9%3:1
8%3:0
6%2:2
6%4:1
5%What influences the xG?
FC Barcelona
Atlético de Madrid
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
64%
Draw
20%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Under 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
70%
Under 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
49%
Under 3.5
51%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
36%
No Draw
80%
Both Score
Yes
64%
No
36%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: A home win probability of 64% is mathematically calculated
- FC Barcelona's home strength: Averaging 2.61 goals scored and only 0.44 goals conceded at Camp Nou
- Dominant form and H2H record: FC Barcelona with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games, plus a 4:1 H2H record against Atlético
Risk Factors
- Atlético Madrid: Only 56% of season goals available, indicating reduced attacking power
- Atlético Madrid's poor away form: 3 losses in the last 5 games
Overview
FC Barcelona (5th place, 16 points) host Atlético Madrid (14th place, 13 points) at Camp Nou
Champions League match on April 8, 2026, 9:00 PM
Barcelona aims to improve its league position
Form
FC Barcelona's form is impressive: DWWWW (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses)
Their last match was a 2-1 away win against Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid shows a form of WWLLL (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses)
Atlético's last match was a 1-2 home loss against FC Barcelona
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
FC Barcelona averages 2.67 goals scored per game and concedes 0.97 goals per game this season
At home, they average 2.61 goals scored and only 0.44 goals conceded per game
Atlético Madrid averages 1.67 goals scored and concedes 1.00 goals per game this season
Away from home, their average is 1.67 goals scored and 1.78 goals conceded per game
FC Barcelona kept 12 clean sheets, Atlético Madrid also kept 12 clean sheets
For Barcelona, both teams scored in 18 games, for Atlético Madrid in 15 games
At Camp Nou, the last 5 games averaged 5.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In 5 Champions League head-to-head matches, FC Barcelona won 4 games, Atlético Madrid won 1 game
There were 0 draws
FC Barcelona scored 9 goals in these encounters, Atlético Madrid scored 6 goals
The last match on April 4, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for FC Barcelona
FC Barcelona has been dominant in recent encounters
Key Players
FC Barcelona's key players include Lamine Yamal with 5 goals and 4 assists (average rating 7.74) and Robert Lewandowski with 4 goals (average rating 6.94)
Jules Koundé contributed 2 goals and 1 assist this season (average rating 7.1)
Not nominated: Fermín López (6 goals/4 assists), Raphinha (3 goals/2 assists)
For Atlético Madrid, Julián Alvarez with 8 goals and 4 assists (average rating 7.75) and Antoine Griezmann with 2 goals and 3 assists (average rating 7.0) are important players
Dávid Hancko scored 2 goals and 1 assist (average rating 6.89)
Goalkeepers
FC Barcelona's goalkeeper, Joan García, made 7 appearances this season
FC Barcelona recorded 12 clean sheets
Juan Musso is Atlético Madrid's goalkeeper with 2 appearances this season
Atlético Madrid achieved 12 clean sheets this season
Influences
FC Barcelona benefits from its home advantage with an average of 2.61 goals scored and only 0.44 goals conceded at Camp Nou
Camp Nou shows a high goal-scoring rate, with an average of 5.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches
In 60% of the last 5 games at Camp Nou, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80%