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Champions League

Liverpool - Paris Saint Germain

04/14/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Liverpool
1.9
Total xG
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
LIVPSG

Liverpool

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.57
Attack strength (1.55x league average)
-0.34
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.29
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 11, 8 places gap)
+0.07
Mohamed Salah on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Strong home record (3.6 vs 1.9 goals/match)

Paris Saint Germain

Attack strength (1.79x league average)
+0.49
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.28
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match)
+0.27
Rising form (3.4 vs 2.5 season average)
+0.27
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 3, 8 places gap)
-0.13
Weak away record (1.8 vs 2.5 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

25%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

34%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

67%

No

33%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 46% for Liverpool (predicted home goals 1.90)
  • Paris Saint Germain shows positive form with 5 consecutive wins and scores more frequently (3.4 goals) than their season average (2.5 goals)
  • Liverpool's goal production has recently declined (1.4 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.9 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Only 57% of Paris Saint Germain's seasonal goal threat is available
  • Liverpool has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • The recent head-to-head record favors Paris Saint Germain with two wins in three matches
Overview

Liverpool (3rd place, 18 points) host Paris Saint Germain (11th place, 14 points) in a Champions League match at Anfield

The match takes place on April 14, 2026, 8:00 PM

Liverpool, in a stronger league position, faces an important encounter against the slightly lower-ranked Parisians

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Liverpool's form in the last 5 games: WLLLW

The home team recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Liverpool's last appearance was a 2-0 home win against Fulham

Paris Saint Germain's form in the last 5 games: WWWWW

The visitors won all 5 of their last games

Paris Saint Germain's last appearance was a 2-0 home win against Liverpool

Statistics

Liverpool averages 1.63 goals scored per game and concedes 1.31 goals

At home, these values improve to 1.61 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded per home game

Paris Saint Germain shows strong offensive and defensive performance with an average of 2.26 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded per game

Away from home, they score 2.25 goals and concede 1.25 goals on average

Liverpool achieved 10 clean sheets in total, while Paris Saint Germain managed 14

Both teams scored in 20 of Liverpool's games and 11 of Paris Saint Germain's games

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 19 of Liverpool's games and 16 of Paris Saint Germain's games

Anfield has seen an average of 3.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches so far, Liverpool has secured 1 win

Paris Saint Germain won 2 of the matches

There have been no draws between the two teams

The goal difference of 3:1 goals favors Paris Saint Germain

The last encounter on April 8, 2026, ended in a 2-0 victory for Paris Saint Germain

Recent head-to-head matches show dominance by Paris Saint Germain

Key Players

For Liverpool, key players in the starting eleven include:

Florian Wirtz (Midfielder) scored 2 goals and provided 3 assists in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.64 (season average 7.34)

Dominik Szoboszlai (Midfielder) contributed 5 goals and 4 assists this season, with an average rating of 7.76

Hugo Ekitiké (Attacker) scored 1 goal in the last 5 games and has an average season rating of 6.98

For Paris Saint Germain, the following players are notable:

Désiré Doué (Attacker) scored 4 times in the last 5 games and has 5 goals and 2 assists this season

Ousmane Dembélé (Attacker) contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games, showing rising form (7.50 rating)

Achraf Hakimi (Defender) provided 5 assists in the last 5 games and has an average season rating of 7.38

Goalkeepers

Liverpool's goal will be defended by Giorgi Mamardashvili, who has an average season rating of 6.54

Liverpool has achieved 10 clean sheets this season

Matvey Safonov will start in goal for Paris Saint Germain and has an average season rating of 6.93

Paris Saint Germain has recorded 14 clean sheets this season

Influences

Anfield has seen an average of 3.6 goals per match in the last 5 games

Both teams scored in 40% of the matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60%

Liverpool scores an average of 1.61 goals at home and concedes 0.94 goals

Paris Saint Germain scores an average of 2.25 goals away and concedes 1.25 goals

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